Back in the 1960s, folk singer Len Chandler wrote a song called “Time of the Tiger” (there is a link to that song at the end of this post). It begins: “This is the time of the tiger/Here alone as he lays with the lamb/The tiger’s just flexing his muscles/The tiger’s just licking his fangs.”

That may be a good metaphor for the upcoming Year of the Tiger, which begins on February 1, 2022. There can be periods that seem calm and placid, but beneath that surface is a wild animal that may lash out violently at any time.

As you probably know, Oriental astrology is based on a cycle of 12 years, each of which is named after an animal. The order of the years in each cycle is: Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit or Cat, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat or Sheep, Monkey, Rooster, Dog and Pig. The coming year is the third in the cycle that began in 2020.

The Year of the Rat (2020) was a troubling one with the onset of the Covid pandemic and a contentious presidential election in the United States. The Year of the Ox (2021) continued those same problems as certain Republicans pushed “the Big Lie” that the election had been marred by fraud and COVID-19 intensified through a number of variants. We could only hope that the Year of the Tiger would be better, but I’m not convinced that it will. I think we are in for another difficult year in a difficult cycle.

Oriental astrology recognizes other cycles, including a five year cycle in which each year is said to have an affinity with one of the five elements – fire, earth, metal, water and wood. Combining the two cycles tells us that the coming year is a Year of the Water Tiger, a combination that repeats every 60 years. The last Water Tiger year was 1962, and before that 1902, 1842, 1782, etc. We will focus on those years, as well as the four Tiger years since 1962 (1974, 1986, 1998 and 2010).

This post is not about astrology. It is about cycles. If we assume there is some basis for the cycles that have brought us to the Year of the Water Tiger, we should be able to look to past Tiger years to get an idea of what to expect in the coming year. The focus here will be on U.S. history with a few references to world history.

It seems that most of these Tiger years are remembered for one major event. In 1782, it was the conclusion of the American Revolution. In 1842, the country was in the midst of a depression – the Panic of 1937 – that had been caused by Andrew Jackson’s economic policies. 1902 was marked by a 5-month long coal miners’ strike that did result in some improvement of working conditions. The Cuban Missile Crisis occurred in 1962. Richard Nixon resigned as president in 1974. 1986 saw the nuclear reactor explosion in Chernobyl. In 1998, there were impeachment proceedings against President Clinton stemming from his lies about an affair with Monica Lewinsky. And 2010 gave us the Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare.” Of course, many other things occurred during those years.

CONFLICTS

Earlier I said that a tiger or a Tiger year could lash out violently at any time; and in the past wars have figured prominently in Tiger years. When the Year of the Tiger began in 1782, the American Revolutionary War was winding down. There were still battles, but for all practical purposes the war ended during that year, though the Treaty of Paris was not signed until 1783.

1842 was a bad Tiger year for those trying to overcome suppression. In the United States the Seminole War, in which the Seminoles were fighting to keep their land from the Americans, ended; and the Seminoles were moved from Florida to Oklahoma. In South Africa, the Boers were waging the Second Boer War against the British colonizers (partly to gain control of diamonds and partly to end colonial rule) and were brutally defeated.

An interesting event that year was the Dorr Rebellion in Rhode Island. Two different governors were elected under a competing constitution and charter. One of those claiming the governorship was Thomas Dorr, who ultimately had his followers take up arms to try to extend voting rights to others than the land-owning white elite. There were no real battles in the rebellion and only one casualty, but the ruling class emerged victorious. These past events may indicate that it will be difficult to pass any voting rights legislation in the coming year.

Another interesting result of the Dorr Rebellion is that Dorr was arrested and sentenced to life imprisonment, but his supporters protested and he was released. Could something like that happen with former president Trump?

World War I began in the Tiger year 1914, and World War II essentially started in the Tiger year 1938. Although Germany did not invade Poland until 1939, the Munich Agreement of 1938 allowed it to invade and occupy the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia, and that essentially began German’s war of conquest.

In the Water Tiger year of 1902, the Phillipine-American War continued and was finally ended as the United States successfully asserted its colonial rights in a conflict with more than 1,000,000 casualties.

The Korean War began in 1950; American involvement in Vietnam was increasing in 1962; in 1986, the U. S. launched a bombing campaign against Libya in response to Libya’s use of SCUD missiles; in 1998 the U. S. led the United Nations forces in the Kosovo War. Those were all Tiger years.

Investing and economic matters have also been important in past Tiger years. As we enter this 2022 Year of the Water Tiger, a major economic issue is increasing inflation, so let’s see how inflation has played out in the past.

ECONOMY

Starting with 1782, we find that the end of the Revolutionary War brought about a recession with inflation of greater than 9%. By 1842, the American economy was a shambles and the country experienced a deflation of between 5% and 6%. In 1902, the rate of inflation was about 1.2% and it was 1.3% in 1962. Turning to the more recent Tiger years, inflation was out of control in 1974, with a 12.3% inflation rate. However, in 1986, the rate was only 1.1%, only 1.6% in 1998, and only 1.5% in 2010.

From these figures we can see that high inflation is possible in Tiger years, but is not likely. Inflation for the coming year will probably be much lower than many of the alarmist politicians and pundits are worried about as the Ox year ends.

In other economic measures, for the past 5 Tiger years the U. S. GDP has ranged from -0.5% (1974) to +6.1% (1962), with an average increase of about 3%. The unemployment rate during those years was between 4.4% (1998) and 9.3% (2010). The unemployment rates were much higher in 1782 and 1842, but those are not fair comparisons. In each of the five recent Tiger years, the rate of unemployment has declined from what it was during the preceding Ox year.

As we begin this Tiger year, the unemployment rate is a very low 3.9%. The historical information would point to the next year being one of modest economic growth with low unemployment.

The stock market has risen in three of the last five Tiger years. Over the longer term, stocks have risen in about three of every four years, so the Tiger years have not been all that good. If we look at the last two Water Tiger years – 1902 and 1962 – there is reason to be pessimistic about the stock market in the coming year.

The first major stock market crash on the New York Stock Exchange was the so-called Panic of 1901. The market did recover somewhat in 1902, but only for a brief period; and it lost a quarter of its value by the end of 1903.

As the Water Tiger year of 1962 began, the stock market had gained more than 10% over the preceding 12 months and had more than tripled since the previous Tiger year, 1950. Early 1962, though, brought the “Flash Crash” or “Kennedy Slide,” and the market again shed nearly a quarter of its value within a very few months. On one day, alone (May 28, 1962), the indices fell nearly 6%.

In another Tiger year there was another episode called the “Flash Crash.” On May 6, 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 1,000 points during the course of the day, with a loss of 600 points occurring in only 5 minutes. The Dow did regain most of that loss by the end of the day. Still, it shows how the Tiger can spring with a violence in any situation.

Today, stock market indices have quadrupled since the last Tiger year, but they are beginning to show some weakness. It would not be surprising to see a major market crash occurring suddenly during the coming year. The crash could be significant enough to bring the Dow Jones Industrial Average down from 36,000 to 27,000.

ELECTIONS

One other area that should be examined is American mid-term elections, which are held every Tiger year. This year, 34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats will be decided.

In the Water Tiger year of 1842, the president was John Tyler, a Whig who had assumed the office after the death of William Henry Harrison. He was not a popular president and the Whig Party was hurt by internal feuding. The Democratic Party took control of the House from the Whigs and gained three Senate seats, though Whigs still constituted the majority of that body.

Theodore Roosevelt was president in 1902. The Republicans controlled both Houses of Congress going into the election, and they maintained that control.

John Kennedy was president for the 1962 election. The Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress before and after the election. The Republicans’ 1960 presidential nominee, Richard Nixon, ran for Governor of California that year, and he was defeated. It was thought that his political career was over; though, alas, that was not the case.

Turning to the more recent elections, the 1974 midterms were held right after the Watergate scandal, when Gerald Ford had been president for only six months. Republicans were unpopular at that time, so the Democrats increased their majorities in both Houses of Congress.

Going into the 1986 midterms, Ronald Reagan was president and the Republicans were the majority party in the Senate, while Democrats controlled the House. The Democrats increased their majority in the House and gained eight Senate seats to take control of that body, also.

The Republican Party maintained control of both Houses of Congress in the 1998 midterms. The Democrats did gain a few seats in the House, marking the first time in over 60 years that the party of the sitting president (Bill Clinton in this case) had gained House seats in a midterm election.

In 2010, Barack Obama was president and the Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress. While they maintained control of the Senate, the Republicans became the majority party in the House.

As you can see, midterm elections are usually a difficult time for the sitting president’s political party, and that will probably be the case in the coming year.

PANDEMIC

Certainly, we can’t conclude without talking about the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, so let us look at the effect of infectious diseases in other Tiger years, beginning with the Water Tiger year of 1782. That was a year that brought a double whammy of disease. Europe was experiencing a deadly influenza epidemic that had spread from China and through Russia for several years before reaching Europe. Meanwhile, North America was dealing with a deadly smallpox epidemic which killed thousands, mostly within Native populations that had no immunity to the disease.

Another Water Tiger year, 1962, was the second year of a severe cholera pandemic that continued to rage throughout the world, primarily in less developed countries, until 1975.

In more recent Tiger years, 1974 saw a smallpox epidemic in India; in 1986 there was a yellow fever epidemic in Nigeria; and 2010 brought another double whammy. There was a continuing epidemic of avian flu (H5N1) affecting mostly Southeast Asia and Egypt that had begun in 2003, to which was added a worldwide swine flu (H1N1) pandemic that killed hundreds of thousands of people all across the globe in 2009 and 2010.

Tiger years, then, are a time when infectious diseases have been common. In many cases, though, the Tiger year marked a winding down of a disease.

TIME OF THE TIGER

So, do we think that history is going to repeat itself? Or will it merely rhyme (similar endings with different events leading to the ends)? Will the past be prologue to what is to come? Or should we look to the coming year as a tabula rasa that will become something unique?

Whatever, it will most certainly be an interesting “Time of the Tiger” – and here is the Len Chandler song: