Year of the Fire Horse – 2026

The new moon on February 17, 2026, marks the beginning of the lunar new year, which is the Year of the Fire Horse in Oriental astrology. That zodiac is comprised of a number of cycles. The two most important are the 12‑year cycle of animals and the 5‑year cycle of elements. Combining those produces a 60‑year cycle until the same animal–element combination repeats.

In most of the world, the horse is seen as a noble animal that can thrive independently or as part of a herd. They can be wild and free, or they can be trained to be a loyal companion and helper to humans. These contrasting qualities make it difficult to predict what may happen in any particular Horse year. They do show, however, that the most important focus in these years is on personal growth. You can become whatever you want if you are willing to work for it.

Personal growth is especially emphasized through the fire element in the coming year. Fire can be destructive like a wildfire or beneficial, giving light and heat. In either case, it transforms the fuel used to feed it, just as the energy is here to transform lives over the next year. Again, the focus is on personal growth.

Now, there are literally hundreds of sites on the internet that have annual forecasts based on the year and animal sign of a person’s birth. Those can be helpful in a year like this that emphasizes personal growth. This post will not consider that, however. Rather, here we will look at the more external matters that will affect everyone.

We have assumed that the Chinese have identified valid cycles of time and looked back at previous Horse years to project what may occur in the one that is about to start. The last Fire Horse year was 60 years ago, in 1966. Before that, there was a Fire Horse year in 1906. Most of the discussion here is based on what has happened in the 10 Horse years we have had in the 20th and 21st centuries, and recognizes that some of those things may be “heated up” a bit by the Fire element in the coming year.

Even brief discussions of the many areas of interest for this year can take some time to read, and some people do not have that time. Therefore, we will begin with an “executive summary,” listing the major predictions. Then, readers who are interested may move on to the body of this essay to see why any particular prediction was made.

Executive Summary

I. Economy

A. The U.S. unemployment rate is presently about 4.4%. It should be little changed in the coming year.

B. We should expect the inflation rate to stay between 2% and 3% this year

. C. Whatever trend is established in the stock market at the beginning of the year is expected to reverse after April or May. The best guess is that this will not be a good year for stocks.

II. Law and Politics

A. Democrats should hold the majority of the seats in both the House and Senate after the 2026 elections.

B. Democrats should win the gubernatorial elections in more than 18 states and in all of the territories holding elections.

C. The Supreme Court will issue some major constitutional decisions this year.

D. It is likely that there will be more advances in the field of human rights than we might presently anticipate.

III. War

A. There will be wars. Let us pray they will be small ones.

IV. Disasters and Violence

A. Earthquakes should be expected on the west coast of the United States and in Iran, Turkey, and China.

B. A few volcanoes may be expected in 2026, especially in Italy and Hawaii.

C. There will be serious fires in both the northern and southern hemispheres, with a focus on Australia, the west coast of the United States, the southwestern United States, and Canada.

D. Hurricane activity will be about average overall, but will affect Texas more than is normal.

E. Unfortunately, there will be terrorist acts and mass killings during the forthcoming year.

V. A Dystopian Alternative

A. If the federal government acts to disrupt the midterm elections, many of these predictions will become void and nearly everything will become much worse.

ECONOMY

The concept of the economy exists on several levels. At its most basic, the economy is the elderly man living on Social Security and wondering if he will be able to pay rent and buy groceries this month, the billionaire jetting off for leisure time on the Greek Isles, and the 16,000 people he laid off before he left on his trip. That level is very hard to quantify and can easily change day to day.

On another level, the economy is stock averages, inflation indicators, unemployment statistics, and other numbers. Those things are quantified by their very nature. They can be used to extrapolate into the future, giving us an idea of what may be coming. Here, we will look only at the numbers.

Beginning with unemployment rates, we see that in the Fire Horse year 1906 there was only 1.4% unemployment. In the most recent Fire Horse year, 1966, the rate was 3.8%. During the Depression in 1930, the rate jumped to 13%. Every Horse year since then has had unemployment rates slightly above or below 6%.

Presently, the U.S. unemployment rate is about 4.4%. That should be little changed in the coming year.

Inflation in the United States has shown no consistency in Horse years. It has ranged from deflation of more than 6% in 1930, when the country was in the midst of the Great Depression, to a high of 17.5% in 1918, when the economy was stressed by the last months of World War I and the Spanish Flu pandemic.

During Fire Horse years, we have seen inflation rates of 2.27% in 1906 and 3% in 1966. The current rate, as of December 2025, is 2.7%. It would seem that we should expect the inflation rate to stay between 2% and 3% this year. However, past Horse years have shown it could be much higher or lower, depending on circumstances.

The stock market is an interesting economic indicator. It is often said that the market is forward‑looking in that shares are purchased in anticipation of future profits of a company. It is also somewhat limited as a gauge of the whole economy because stock markets concern only the success of the largest companies. Smaller “mom and pop” businesses do not sell stock on public exchanges.

Still, it all boils down to what a certain stock is worth right now. That issue implicitly includes consideration of all the variables affecting the economy and various industries. These days, it also recognizes that larger companies are squeezing out small locally owned businesses, so the stock market is a fairly accurate measure of the economy.

A look at past Horse years shows that pretty much anything can happen. In 1954, for example, the market indices set a series of new highs even though the economy was in recession for the first part of the year. On the other hand, the market fell sharply in 1930 as the United States continued to suffer through the Great Depression.

Those years are examples of the most prominent pattern seen in a Year of the Horse: the market tends to change direction in mid‑year. If stocks start the year rising, they will end falling. If they start falling, they will end rising. In 1930, the market rose continuously through May, then fell steeply in June, bounced back a bit in July and August, and fell steeply again for the rest of the year. In 1954, the market had been down during a recessionary period that began in 1953. That recession ended in May, and the market rose steeply afterward.

The past two Years of the Fire Horse do not bode well for the coming year. In 1906, the stock market began on a positive note. Then, on April 18, a major earthquake struck San Francisco, killing thousands and destroying much of the city. In 1966, prices were fairly flat during the first few months before they began to fall, finishing the year with a loss of about 20%. That loss, caused by the economic effects of the Vietnam War and Johnson’s Great Society programs, ended a bull market that had extended through the previous 10 years.

The stock market may also be held back by higher oil prices, since Horse years have often brought instability in the Middle East. In 1954, for example, the Muslim Brotherhood was outlawed in Egypt following the attempted assassination of President Nasser. During the Fire Horse year 1966, a group of army officers seized power in Syria. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. The Middle East is expected to remain a “hot spot” in 2026.

As for a prediction for the coming year, you should wait to see what the market has done by April or May, then expect the trend to reverse. The best guess is that this will not be a good year for stocks.

LAW AND POLITICS

The law and politics of the United States will be highlighted in the coming year. The 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence will be celebrated, midterm elections will be held for the federal Senate and House of Representatives, and governors will be elected in 36 states and 3 territories.

Some see midterm elections as a kind of punishment for the president. Commentators have pointed out — and more will do so as the election approaches — that the sitting president’s party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in 18 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II. Right now, the House has 218 Republican members and 214 Democrats, with 4 seats vacant. It would not take too many victories for the Democrats to become the majority. All of those seats are up for election.

The Senate presently has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. This year, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Of those, 22 are now held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats. The Republicans, then, have more to defend, and on average the minority party has gained about 3 Senate seats in midterm elections. Gaining 3 seats for the Democrats would make the party distribution even.

Now let’s see what has happened in the elections held in Horse years, of which there have been 10 since the beginning of the 20th century. We will begin with the two Fire Horse years. In 1906, Republican Theodore Roosevelt was president, and the Republicans maintained control of both houses of Congress. Next, in 1966, Democrat Lyndon Johnson was president, and Democrats gained control of both houses. In each of those elections, though, the minority party made substantial gains.

In the other Horse‑year elections, the president’s party maintained control of both houses in 1930, 1942, 1978, and 2002. The president’s party lost control of both houses after the 1918, 1954, and 2014 elections; but again, in each of those elections the minority party gained seats. In 1990, Republican George H. W. Bush was president, but both the House and Senate were controlled by the Democrats before the election. They increased their majority in the midterm elections.

Overall, history seems to indicate that the Republicans will remain the majority party in both houses. However, in every Horse‑year election, the minority party has gained a substantial number of seats. Since the House and Senate are both fairly evenly divided, any “substantial” gain would make the Democrats the majority party. With those substantial gains being the only consistent pattern in Horse years, the Democrats should hold the majority of seats in both the House and Senate after the 2026 elections.

History is a little clearer in looking at the gubernatorial elections. Of the 36 states electing governors, 18 presently have Democrats in that role and 18 have Republicans. In every Horse‑year election since 1906, the party of the sitting president has lost governorships. Therefore, we can say that the Democrats should win the elections in more than 18 states. They should also win in each of the territories holding elections.

Turning to constitutional law, the Supreme Court has announced some of its most important decisions during Years of the Horse. These are cases that even non‑lawyers know by name, including Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 (separate‑but‑equal schools are unconstitutional), Miranda v. Arizona in 1966 (“you have the right to remain silent…”), and United States v. Eichman in 1990 (flag burning as protected free speech). Several cases of great importance are now pending before the Supreme Court, and the Court will make some major constitutional decisions this year. Some of those opinions may already have been issued by the time you read this.

These legal and political matters will occur against the backdrop of the semiquincentennial of the United States — the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. It seems that the inalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness that were once considered self‑evident truths have been brushed aside, and the American people are now being fed a series of lies and obfuscations by the government and much of the press.

Although the present government has shown its disdain for even the most basic human rights, the focus on the visions of the Founding Fathers may serve to bring those issues back into the American system of belief. In fact, Horse years have been favorable times for the advancement of such matters.

Although the Fire Horse year 1906 was generally not a good year for civil rights — with Jim Crow laws and the Atlanta Race Riots — it did mark the first American meeting of the Niagara Movement, which was the beginning of the modern civil rights movement and eventually evolved into the NAACP. In 1954, there was public outrage when it was learned that the post office had permitted the CIA to open individuals’ mail, and that year the “Communist witch hunt” of the early 1950s ended with the censure of Joseph McCarthy. The Humane Society was also formed in 1954. In 1966, the Vatican abolished its index of banned books, and the anti‑Vietnam War movement became prominent. In 1990, Nelson Mandela was released from prison and the Sandinistas were defeated in a relatively free election in Nicaragua. It is likely that the coming year will see more advances in human rights than we might presently anticipate.

WAR

The unpleasant counterbalance to the human rights movement is war, which destroys human rights and human lives. Horses have traditionally been used as instruments of war, and Horse years have seen their share of major conflicts. Going back to the Fire Horse year 1846, that was the beginning of the Mexican War. In 1918, we were still in the final months of World War I. The United States had just entered World War II in 1942. In Vietnam, the French were defeated at Dien Bien Phu in 1954, which eventually led to American involvement in Vietnam, and that involvement was drastically accelerated in 1966. In 2014, the United States was in the middle of its longest war ever in Afghanistan, which had begun in the Horse year of 2002.

So, there will be wars. Let us pray that they are small ones.

DISASTERS AND VIOLENCE

We also know that every year brings earthquakes, volcanoes, fires, hurricanes, extreme violent acts, and other natural and unnatural disasters. This coming year will be no different. It may be instructive, though, to look at the kinds of disasters we may expect.

When thinking about wild horses and fire acting together, some of the first things that come to mind are earthquakes and volcanoes. There have been many earthquakes. The Fire Horse year 1906 saw the massive San Francisco earthquake, which was probably the most destructive in U.S. history. The next Fire Horse year, 1966, brought an earthquake that killed more than 8,000 people in China and another that killed 2,500 in Turkey. Iran suffered more than 20,000 deaths in a 1978 earthquake and more than 50,000 in one that occurred in 1990. There have been others, of course, but it seems that in the coming year, earthquakes may be expected on the west coast of the United States and in Iran, Turkey, and China.

Volcanoes are less frequent, but Horse years have seen their share. Vesuvius and Stromboli in Italy have erupted in several of those years, including the Fire Horse year 1906. Kilauea in Hawaii has also erupted more than once. A few volcanoes may be expected in 2026, especially in Italy and Hawaii.

Wildfires are to be expected in a Year of the Fire Horse, and they have occurred. In fact, the fires seem to come strongly in Horse years in general. The most frequent and serious have been in Australia, Chile, Canada, and the west coast of the United States.

There have also been deadly fires caused by human activity. During World War II, there were several instances when a fire was started at a Nazi concentration camp to drive prisoners out to be murdered. Many thousands of people died as a result. In 1954, following the Korean War, a fire was started at a refugee camp near Busan that killed a number of people and destroyed more than 1,000 buildings. In 1990, a fire in India was caused by a fireworks explosion, killing 33 and throwing some body parts more than a mile away. In the Fire Horse year 1966, there were several fire bombings during the Cleveland riots.

As for a prediction, look for serious fires in both the northern and southern hemispheres, with a focus on Australia, the west coast of the United States, the southwestern United States, and Canada. Keep in mind that next year is another fire year — the Year of the Fire Goat or Sheep — so some of what we see this year may be a prelude to what is to come.

As you are probably aware, the frequency and severity of wildfires has been influenced by human‑induced climate change. These effects are also seen with respect to hurricanes. It is interesting to note that during each of the four Horse years in the first half of the 20th century (1906, 1918, 1930, 1942), Atlantic hurricane activity was average or below average. The only unusual thing about those years was that there were more hurricanes than normal hitting Texas. Then, for the next five Horse years (1954, 1966, 1978, 1990, 2002), hurricane activity was above average in each year. In the most recent Horse year, 2014, the activity was well below average. It seems that the best guess for the coming year would be average hurricane activity overall, but affecting Texas more than normal.

Another problem with the modern world is that violence has become too common, so predictions of mass shootings or terrorist activities will almost always come to pass. Horse years have seen more than enough of those things.

It has already been mentioned that in 1942 there were many thousands of murders in Nazi concentration camps. In 1954, Puerto Rican nationalists opened fire in the U.S. House of Representatives, wounding five congressmen. The last Fire Horse year, 1966, was the height of the Cultural Revolution in China, with the killing or imprisonment of thousands of “counterrevolutionaries” by the youthful paramilitary forces known as the Red Guard. It was also the year in which eight student nurses were murdered by Richard Speck in Chicago and a sniper killed 13 people from a tower on the University of Texas campus. In 2002, terrorists attacked the Miss World competition in Nigeria and several people were shot in the “Beltway Sniper” attacks in Washington, D.C. Of course, there have been many other incidents, but the point has been made. Unfortunately, there will be more terrorist acts and mass killings during the forthcoming year.

A DYSTOPIAN ALTERNATIVE

Recently, there has been some conjecture that the federal government will try to cancel or “federalize” the midterm elections. The obvious reason for doing something like that would be to keep the Republican Party in power, even though the Party believes it would lose power in fair elections.

What if that happens? Certainly nothing like that has occurred in any Year of the Horse, so history would say that it won’t happen now.

But what if it does happen? The United States is celebrating its 250th birthday — that is one quarter of a millennium, a very long time. During that period, every governing body has, for the most part, tried to exercise power within the rule of law, and usually subject to a flawed but serviceable Constitution. However, the current federal government has shown open disdain for both the rule of law and the Constitution.

So, what if it does happen?

Well, the stock market would crash, the dollar would lose most of its value, several states would announce that they are seceding from the Union, there would be bloody and destructive demonstrations, several government officials would be assassinated, Congress might finally exercise its authority and push back against the idea, foreign companies would close their offices and plants and stop trading with the United States, the president and vice president would be impeached, and those who rely on Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid would suffer badly.

There is no person or governmental body that has the authority to disrupt the elections. Nothing like that has ever taken place in a Horse year, so hopefully it will not happen now. If elections are disrupted, most of the predictions in this essay will be void.

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We began this discussion saying that the Year of the Fire Horse is most importantly a time for personal growth. Nearly everything we have talked about since then has been about matters external to the individual. Let’s end by getting a little more personal.

In Traditional Chinese Medicine, the Fire element is the only one associated with four organ systems (each of the others is associated with only two). Those are the heart, the pericardium, the small intestine and the triple burner. Accordingly, if the fire element is out of balance, nearly the whole body will be affected. If it is in balance, the whole body will benefit.

The fire element is seen as passionate and expansive, so balance requires that it be reined in and directed toward contributing to your personal growth. Some of the things that will help are limiting the intake of spicy foods and of alcohol and caffeine, spending time on mindfulness and self-reflection, drinking plenty of water and spending time in nature. There are specific yoga and qigong practices that are very beneficial.

Whatever you do in the coming year, whether for yourself or others, do it sincerely from the heart. Red is the color associated with Fire, and the Taoist heart sound is “haaaa,.” said like a gentle sigh to release excess heat from the heart.

Keep in mind, too, that heart disease in its various forms is the number one cause of death in the whole world. Everyone should have, at the minimum,a basic physical exam in which a trained person at least listens to your heart. It is further recommended that adults between the ages of 40 and 75 should undergo an atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment at least once every 10 years. And it goes without saying that you should eat a plant-based diet, engage in moderate exercise and quit smoking (if you have that habit).

Now, let us end with a heartfelt,

Gong xi fa cai. Gong hey fat choy. Happy New Year.

FOOTBALL IN THE YEAR OF THE SNAKE

It’s barely August, hard to believe that football season is back, but here it is. In the past, we have not looked at previous Oriental zodiac years to make any special football predictions. This year, though, football could be a welcome diversion from the abysmal spate of political madness that has become the norm. So, let’s look back to previous Years of the Snake and see what we might expect for the coming season.

Since the “Super Bowl Era” began with the joining of the AFL and the NFL, four NFL seasons have begun during a Year of the Snake. Somewhat surprisingly, the Denver Broncos were playing in the Super Bowl at the end of three of those seasons

First, in 1977, Denver beat the Oakland Raiders for the AFC title and played in the Super Bowl against the Dallas Cowboys, who had beaten the Minnesota Viking for the NFC championship. Dallas won by a score of 27-10.Continue reading “FOOTBALL IN THE YEAR OF THE SNAKE”

YEAR OF THE SNAKE – 2025

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Here is a summary of the predictions for this Year of the Snake. You may click on any of the predictions (after you click “continue reading” if you are on the home page) to read the discussion of the facts supporting it.

1. Good things will happen, but most if them will not make the news, What we see on the news will be largely negative.

2. The economy is difficult to predict in Snake years. It is likely that inflation will drop to less than 2.5%; unemployment should decrease to 3.9-4%; and though the stock market will be volatile, it should eke out gains.

3. The war in Ukraine should end. There will be concessions on the part of Ukraine, but the result will generally be seen as a Russian defeat.

4. There will be movement toward peace in the Middle East, though it will not be achieved this year. Actions by Saudi Arabia may slow down the process. We can expect to see the death of one or more Middle East leaders, as well as acts of terrorism.

5. Even as Ukraine and the Middle East become more peaceful, military conflicts will develop in other parts of the world. Areas of concern include India, Pakistan, Egypt and Vietnam.

6. This year will see its share of earthquakes, hurricanes, mass shootings and other disastrous events, with the focus being on fires, airplane crashes, mining disasters and buildings collapsing.

7. There may be a new pope within the next year. At the very least, expect significant developments related to the Roman Catholic Church.

8. This will be a year for scandals related to political corruption.

9. Concerning various campaign promises made by Donald Trump:

a. Immigration and immigrants will be important issues. There will be more deportations with fewer civil liberties. Important new immigration legislation may be enacted.

b. Tariffs will also be an area of concern. Some new tariffs are likely, but there will be litigation as to whether Trump is exceeding the authority that Congress has delegated to the executive branch.

c. In is unlikely that the United States will take any action to annex or invade Canada or Greenland. Relying on the 1977 “neutrality treaty” with Panama, the United States is likely to make some effort to re-establish a presence in Panama.

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The Chinese – or Oriental or lunar – system of astrology is based on various cycles of years. The best known cycles are the 12 animals (rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, sheep, monkey, rooster, dog, pig) and the 5 elements (wood, fire, earth, metal, water). That means that the year designated by each animal repeats every 12 years and the year designated by the combination of an animal and a metal repeats every 60 years (12×5). In this post we will assume that those cycles are valid and consider what might occur in the coming year by looking at events from past similar years of the cycles.Continue reading “YEAR OF THE SNAKE – 2025”

Year of the Dragon Predictions Update

I am writing this on May 19, 2024, which is about 100 days into the Year of the Dragon. One of the predictions made back in January was that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would rise above 40,000 this year. Well, last Friday that average closed at 40,0003, and it is poised to go higher. (The S&P 500 and NASDAQ averages have done even better than the Dow, but round numbers are easier to comprehend.) The most recent Year of the Wood Dragon – which was 1964 – might give some guidance as to what may be expected from here.

In 1964, the stock market was strong during the first few months of the year, just as it has been this year. Then, in April there was a significant correction – again, just as occurred this year. That was followed by a strong market through mid-summer with another pullback in August. The market then rose sharply in September and was flat for the rest of the year. We shall see whether something similar is seen over the rest of this Dragon year.

Some of the other predictions from January have already come about, though we are only about three months into the year. It was predicted that major flooding could be expected this year, and we have certainly seen that. Unprecedented, devastating floods have been experienced in Houston, Texas, Brazil, South China, East Africa, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Afghanistan, Sumatra, Kazakhstan, Russia, and other places around the world. Hundreds of lives have been lost and property damage measures in the billions of dollars.

It was also predicted that there would be transportation disasters, even including buses and shipping. So far, we have seen the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore after one of its piers was struck by a container ship and a barge destroyed a portion of the Pelican Island Bridge in Galveston.

Earlier this month, there was a serious, fatal crash of a “party bus” in Maryland and the crash of a bus filled with farm workers that left eight dead in Florida.

It will certainly be interesting to see what we will experience during the rest of this Year of the Dragon. The first part of it has been unfolding pretty much as predicted, though.

YEAR OF THE DRAGON 2024 – PART 2

The predictions for this Year of the Dragon are fairly lengthy, so we will post them in two parts. Part 1 looks at the economy and the presidential election in the United States. This Part 2 considers other matters that may be important in the coming year.

Before we begin this discussion, here is an executive summary of the predictions from both Parts 1and 2:

PREDICTIONS

The United States will see lower inflation and lower unemployment.

Stocks will rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average moving well above 40,000.

There will be no recession.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump may not be the candidates for president in the November election.

The candidate nominated by the Democrats, whether Joe Biden or someone else, will most likely win the presidential election. However, Grover Cleveland’s election to a non-consecutive term in a previous Dragon year shows that Mr. Trump may have a chance for an upset.

There is an increased danger of flooding.

Advances will be made that relate to transportation, but there will be travel disasters, such as airplane crashes and bus or shipping accidents.

Like every year in the United States, there will be mass shootings, some of which may occur at schools.

Progress will be made with respect to civil rights and relations between races. The progress will not be smooth, and we may see racial violence and even genocide.

Expect impressive technological advances, probably in such fields as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and space travel.

The war in Ukraine will drag on, with Russia getting the worst of it

Continue reading “YEAR OF THE DRAGON 2024 – PART 2”

YEAR OF THE DRAGON 2024 – PART 1

The predictions for this Year of the Dragon are fairly lengthy, so we will post them in two parts. This Part 1 looks at the economy and the presidential election in the United States. Part 2 considers other matters that may be important in the coming year.

The Chinese (Oriental, lunar) New Year begins on February 10, 2024. Based upon a progression of years moving in a 12-year cycle – each year associated with a particular animal – this is the Year of the Dragon. The most recent Dragon year was 12 years ago, in 2012. Each year is also associated with one of the five elements – wood, fire, earth, metal and water – and this is going to be a wood year. It is the Year of the Wood Dragon. Combining those two cycles, one sees that the Year of the Wood Dragon repeats every 60 years (12 x 5). The most recent Year of the Wood Dragon was 1964.

What will this new year bring? That is always an interesting question. In this post we will make some predictions, and then see what really happens. These predictions are not based on astrology or psychic abilities; they are based on analyzing cycles. Assuming that there is a basis for the cycles that are recognized in Chinese astrology, it should be possible to look at what has occurred in similar past years and extrapolate what may be coming in the future. That is the approach we are taking here.

You may wonder how accurate this method of predicting has been. Well, the track record is pretty good. Last year – the Year of the Rabbit – began with almost every economist and pundit predicting a recession and a bad year for the stock market. Looking at the cycles, though, we said that there would not be a recession and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could reach an all-time high. Both of those things came to pass.

We also warned that Turkey and Ecuador were prone to major earthquakes. Well a devastating earthquake, measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale, struck in Turkey only days after the Year of the Rabbit began, causing some 60,000 deaths and incredible damage. Only a month later, a strong earthquake measuring 6.8 was experienced in Ecuador. It caused extensive damage, but only a few deaths.

Other predictions were also accurate, but we should turn now to the predictions for the coming year. Here is an executive summary of all the predictions:

Continue reading “YEAR OF THE DRAGON 2024 – PART 1”

YEAR OF THE RABBIT – 2023

The New Moon on January 22, 2023 marks the beginning of the Chinese Year of the Rabbit – or the Vietnamese Year of the Cat.

Why are different animals named for the same year in neighboring countries? We cannot say for certain, but there is a plausible explanation. When the animals of the Chinese zodiac were chosen, there were very few cats in China, so it is not surprising they were not included in the heavenly twelve. Sometime later, the concept of the twelve animal cycle was introduced in Vietnam, and there was an issue in the translation. The Chinese word for the zodiacal rabbit is “mǎo tu,” which sounds like the Vietnamese word for cat, which is “meo.” Both of those words sound like the “meow” hear from a cat. It would be an easy mistake to make, and one that is easy to live with.

As you probably know, the Oriental zodiac is comprised of a cycle of twelve years, each of which is represented by a different animal. The rabbit (as we will refer to the year) is the fourth of the cycle. This particular cycle has been a difficult one. It began with the Year of the Rat (2020), which brought the Covid pandemic and contentious presidential politics that ended with an assault on the United States Capitol. Those problems continued and intensified in the Year of the Ox (2021); and remained with us through the Year of the Tiger (2022), which also brought war and problems with inflation and an economic downturn.

The animals symbolize the connection of the Oriental zodiac to the Earth, but our world is also connected to the heavens. This fact is recognized by another cycle that moves through the five elements – earth, fire, wood, water and metal – which combines with the animal signs to make a longer cycle of 60 years.

In last year’s discussion of the Year of the Tiger, we said that beneath any appearance of calm there is a wild animal capable of lashing out at any moment. Indeed, only a very few weeks into the Tiger year, Vladimir Putin launched the Russian invasion into Ukraine that was the defining event of 2022, and which continues today.

Last year we also discussed the possibility of the stock market falling by up to 25%. During the year, the S & P 500 Index did drop by 25%, before rebounding slightly; and the NASDAQ performed even worse.

Can we expect any better with the Rabbit? On the surface, one would think so. The rabbit is seen as a peaceful and clever animal that brings a time of hope and prosperity. The current cycle, though, should keep us wary.Continue reading “YEAR OF THE RABBIT – 2023”

YEAR OF THE TIGER – 2022

Back in the 1960s, folk singer Len Chandler wrote a song called “Time of the Tiger” (there is a link to that song at the end of this post). It begins: “This is the time of the tiger/Here alone as he lays with the lamb/The tiger’s just flexing his muscles/The tiger’s just licking his fangs.”

That may be a good metaphor for the upcoming Year of the Tiger, which begins on February 1, 2022. There can be periods that seem calm and placid, but beneath that surface is a wild animal that may lash out violently at any time.

As you probably know, Oriental astrology is based on a cycle of 12 years, each of which is named after an animal. The order of the years in each cycle is: Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit or Cat, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat or Sheep, Monkey, Rooster, Dog and Pig. The coming year is the third in the cycle that began in 2020.

The Year of the Rat (2020) was a troubling one with the onset of the Covid pandemic and a contentious presidential election in the United States. The Year of the Ox (2021) continued those same problems as certain Republicans pushed “the Big Lie” that the election had been marred by fraud and COVID-19 intensified through a number of variants. We could only hope that the Year of the Tiger would be better, but I’m not convinced that it will. I think we are in for another difficult year in a difficult cycle. Continue reading “YEAR OF THE TIGER – 2022”

YEAR OF THE OX – 2021

Welcome to the Year of the Ox which begins on February 12, 2021 and lasts until January 31, 2022. The Ox is the second sign in the Oriental astrological cycle, which goes Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit or Cat, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat or Sheep, Monkey, Rooster, Dog and Pig. Therefore, we will be entering the second year of a cycle that began traumatically during the past Rat year.

In addition to the cycle of the 12 animal signs, the years are said to have affinities to the five elements – fire, earth, metal, water and wood, so that a complete cycle includes each of the animal signs with each element and lasts 60 years. This year will be the Year of the Metal Ox.

In this post we are going to look at what may be expected during the coming lunar year. This is not intended to be a psychic prediction or an astrological interpretation, rather it assumes that the cycles of the Oriental calendar are valid and that what is to come may be extrapolated from what has occurred in past Ox years. That takes a bit of analysis, so if you wish you can jump straight to the predictions by clicking here.

When I discussed the Year of the Rat last year, I pointed out that Rats do not have regular patterns like many of the other animals, so pretty much anything could happen – and it did. The Rat year gave us a global pandemic, raging wildfires, hurricanes, millions of people espousing conspiracy theories, an attack on the American Capitol and much more.

Last year’s discussion focused on the American presidential election and concluded that the stock market may be the best predictor for elections in Rat years. I said that if the S&P 500 average was above 3,470 on election day, President Trump would have a good chance to be reelected; if it was below 3,130, then there would probably be a new president. If the average was between the two, anything could happen. Well, during the year the average rose above 3,470 and it fell below 3,130. On election day it was between the two, so anything could happen – and it did. In the end, Mr. Trump was soundly defeated, but he refused to accept that fact.

Nevertheless, the election made Joe Biden the new president, and it is fitting to elect a new president in the first year of a new cycle of animal signs.

The Ox is often described as a hard working, grounded, loyal trustworthy animal and Ox years are seen as times of recovery and stability; times when justice and freedom are advanced through the processes of law and order. Looking to the past, though, it seems that those generalizations are only partly true.

Continue reading “YEAR OF THE OX – 2021”

WALKING WITH DARCY

As a rule, I am not nostalgic. I think I should try to live in the present and that takes enough energy that the past simply has to be the past. However, here we are in September of 2020 and I truly wish that this was five years ago.

Think how much better nearly everything seemed five years ago: Barack Obama was president. We could go outside without masks, and could even travel to foreign countries if we wished. The sky presented a variety of colors, and hardly any of them were orange. My brother Jim was still alive. Cathy’s brother Steve was still alive. I didn’t have a device in my chest to help my heart beat properly. Darcy and I could walk wherever we wanted go.

All of those things are different today.

Darcy came to us as a rescue puppy of indeterminate breed when she was six weeks old. We played a lot and she loved her walks. We would go out on the local trails every day, and usually more than once a day. Our walks were always interesting, as she was a curious puppy who needed to stop and investigate many things.

A few weeks after Darcy’s second birthday, my grandson Ryder was born. I had retired by then, so when his mother went back to work I would pick him up each day and bring him over to our house where Darcy and I would care for him. Darcy was absolutely wonderful with the baby. She was patient and gentle and loving and protective.
Continue reading “WALKING WITH DARCY”