YEAR OF THE SNAKE – 2025

YEAR OF THE SNAKE – 2025

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Here is a summary of the predictions for this Year of the Snake. You may click on any of the predictions (after you click “continue reading” if you are on the home page) to read the discussion of the facts supporting it.

1. Good things will happen, but most if them will not make the news, What we see on the news will be largely negative.

2. The economy is difficult to predict in Snake years. It is likely that inflation will drop to less than 2.5%; unemployment should decrease to 3.9-4%; and though the stock market will be volatile, it should eke out gains.

3. The war in Ukraine should end. There will be concessions on the part of Ukraine, but the result will generally be seen as a Russian defeat.

4. There will be movement toward peace in the Middle East, though it will not be achieved this year. Actions by Saudi Arabia may slow down the process. We can expect to see the death of one or more Middle East leaders, as well as acts of terrorism.

5. Even as Ukraine and the Middle East become more peaceful, military conflicts will develop in other parts of the world. Areas of concern include India, Pakistan, Egypt and Vietnam.

6. This year will see its share of earthquakes, hurricanes, mass shootings and other disastrous events, with the focus being on fires, airplane crashes, mining disasters and buildings collapsing.

7. There may be a new pope within the next year. At the very least, expect significant developments related to the Roman Catholic Church.

8. This will be a year for scandals related to political corruption.

9. Concerning various campaign promises made by Donald Trump:

a. Immigration and immigrants will be important issues. There will be more deportations with fewer civil liberties. Important new immigration legislation may be enacted.

b. Tariffs will also be an area of concern. Some new tariffs are likely, but there will be litigation as to whether Trump is exceeding the authority that Congress has delegated to the executive branch.

c. In is unlikely that the United States will take any action to annex or invade Canada or Greenland. Relying on the 1977 “neutrality treaty” with Panama, the United States is likely to make some effort to re-establish a presence in Panama.

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The Chinese – or Oriental or lunar – system of astrology is based on various cycles of years. The best known cycles are the 12 animals (rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, sheep, monkey, rooster, dog, pig) and the 5 elements (wood, fire, earth, metal, water). That means that the year designated by each animal repeats every 12 years and the year designated by the combination of an animal and a metal repeats every 60 years (12×5). In this post we will assume that those cycles are valid and consider what might occur in the coming year by looking at events from past similar years of the cycles.

There are other cycles such as yin-yang and colors, but those will be largely ignored so we can focus on the more important major cycles.

The Year of the Wood Dragon begins with the new moon on January 29, 2025 and continues until February 16, 2026. The most recent Wood Snake years were 1905 and 1965. Snake years matched with other elements included 1917, 1929, 1941, 1953, 1977, 1981, 2001 and 2013. We will focus on those years from the 20th and 21st Centuries, while considering earlier Snake years as they may be relevant.

To anyone familiar with American history, those years do not give much comfort as a template for the future. For example, 1929 brought the stock market crash and the Great Depression, in 1941 Pearl Harbor was bombed and the United States entered World War II, there was a recession in 1953, the first American ground troops were sent to Vietnam in 1965, and 2001 was the year of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Therefore, it is likely that the upcoming Year of the Snake will be a difficult one for the United States and the world.

No year is all bad, of course. Many good things have happened in Snake years, and even the negative events have not impacted everyone. Some individuals and groups have had wonderful Snake years, and 2025 will be wonderful for many.

Among the good things that have happened on a macro level, the Forest Service was established to protect federal lands in 1905; Medicare and Medicaid were created in 1965; the first GPS satellite was placed in orbit in 1989 and the Berlin Wall was torn down that year; in 2001 the first maps of the human genome were published. Many more events could be mentioned, but these show the kind of good things that have come occurred during Snake years.

So our first prediction is that good things are going to happen in 2025, but most of them will not make the news.

Let’s turn now to some of the areas of concern that probably will be in the news in 2025.

ECONOMY

A look at the American economy is a good place to begin this discussion. There is so much data available that reasonable extrapolations may be made as to future events. Also, the economy is the engine that drives many world and personal events.

Inflation

Although there is a great deal of economic data available, clear patterns are difficult to find for Snake years. There have been five Snake Years since the last Wood Snake year in 1965. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) has increased in three of those years and decreased in the other two. In the Wood Snake year of 1965, inflation nearly doubled from 1.0% to 1.9%; but in the next previous Wood Snake year, 1905, there was no measurable inflation at all. In the Wood Snake year before that, 1845, inflation was about 1.35% after having been about 1.33% in 1844, so there was essentially no change (there was no CPI then, so those figures are estimates).

The most recent CPI figures from December of 2024 show an annual inflation rate of 2.9%. That is a bit higher than in most of the 20th and 21st Century Snake years, but lower than it was in 1941 (5.0%), 1977 (6.7%) and 1989 (4.6%). It is much lower than the 17.8% rate in the Snake year of 1917 when the United States entered World War I. That year saw the highest inflation rate in American history.

Using these numbers, almost any guess as to the inflation over the next year could be justified. If we give extra weight to prior Wood Snake years, it appears likely that the rate of inflation should decrease slightly, possibly getting below 2.5%.

Unemployment

The available data shows that the average American unemployment rate during Snake years has been about 5.6%. Like inflation, the unemployment rate has varied greatly from a low of 3.2% in 1929 to a high of 9.9% in 1941. The most recent Wood Snake years show a 4.0% rate in 1965 and 4.3% in 1905.

The most recent figures indicate that the rate of unemployment for December 2024 was 4.1%. Generally, there has been a small drop in unemployment from Dragon years to Snake years, so we may expect the rate to drop to 3.9-4.0%.

GDP

Changes in the U. S. gross domestic product (“GDP”) have also varied greatly in Snake years. Of course, the GDP almost always increases, the question is how much. In some Snake years like 1953 and 2001, the increase has been only a fraction of 1%. The most recent Wood Snake years show increases of 5.2% in 1905 and 6.5% in 1965. Wood is a symbol of growth, so it would be expected that the GDP will grow in the coming year. At present, the GDP is a little over $28 trillion. By the end of this Year of the Wood Snake, that should have increased to $29-30 trillion.

Stock Market

There is a clear upward bias to the U. S. stock market – the major indices rising in about twice as many years as they have fallen – and it reflects general economic conditions. Since it appears that the coming year will be at least an average one for the economy, it would seem to follow that the stock market will be up for the year.

This is a Snake year, however. Predictions can be tricky (especially about the future, as Yogi Berra reminded us).

The predecessor to the current Dow Jones Industrial Average was created in 1884. There have been 11 Snake years since then, and that average has fallen during 7 of those years, rising in only 4. One of those down years was 1929, remembered for the great stock market crash starting on October 28 and the beginning of the Great Depression.

Since the end of World War II, there have been six Snake years, and those have exhibited a down-up pattern: down in 1953, up in 1965, down in 1977, up in 1989, down in 2001, up in 2013. If that pattern continues, 2025 should be a down year for the market.

One economic issue that has not been mentioned is the possibility of increased tariffs as promised by President Trump. We will look at that possibility later, but historically new tariffs have caused the stock market to decline. The crash of 1929 was partially a reaction to a front-page headline on October 28 in the New York Times reading “Leaders Predict Tariffs Will Pass,” as indeed they did the following year.

A more positive indicator is the fact that in the past two Wood Snake years the stock market has risen. Even in those years, though, the market has seen some rough times. For instance, the was a steep decline in the market from May to July of 1965; but then it bounced back.

We are going into a Wood year and Wood signifies growth. That has been reflected in the positive stock market performance of the past two Wood Snake years. Therefore, it is likely that the market will be positive overall in the coming year, but it will be volatile.

WAR AND PEACE

In general, Snake years have not been peaceful times. However, continuing the capricious pattern of such years, some have actually been good times for peace initiatives. Our best guess is that the coming year will see an end to the Russia-Ukraine War and steps taken to bring peace to the Middle East while new conflicts break out elsewhere.

To begin, let’s remember some of the conflicts that have occurred in Snake years. In 1941, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor and the United States entered World War II. 1965 saw the first U. S. ground troops deployed to Vietnam, American troops were also sent to the Dominican Republic in response to a civil war, mass killings occurred In Indonesia to stop a communist insurgency, and there was a war between India and Pakistan. In 1977, there were wars between Cambodia and Vietnam, Egypt and Libya, and Ethiopia and Somalia. In 2001, the U. S. invaded Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks and India and Pakistan resumed fighting over Kashmir. In 2013 thousands of people were killed as the president of Egypt was deposed and the government overthrown. Also in 2013 chemical weapons were used against civilians in Syria.

Now, let’s look at some of the things that have happened in Snake years to bring about a more peaceful world. The Korean Armistice Agreement was signed in July of 1953 ending a conflict that had caused nearly 4 million deaths and the destruction of nearly all of Korea’s major cities. In 1989, the easing of the Cold War was marked by an important meeting between American President Bush and Soviet Premier Gorbachev and by the tearing down of the Berlin Wall.

Snake years have also seen steps taken to try to bring peace to the Middle East. In 1977, for example, Egyptian President Sadat visited Israel, beginning the peace process resulting in the Camp David Accords the following year. In 2013, Israel and the Palestinians resumed peace talks that had been stalled for three years, a nuclear arms agreement was reached between the United States and Iran, and Jordan, Israel and the Palestinians reached an agreement concerning water from the Dead Sea.

Unfortunately, we have seen deaths of several Middle Eastern leaders during Snake years. In the Wood Snake year 1905 Muslim reformer Mohammad Abdu died. King Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia died in 1953. Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran died in 1989. In 2001, Abu Ali Mustafa, the leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine was killed and an Israeli cabinet minister was assassinated in retaliation.

There have been only two Snake years since Ukraine became an independent country, both of which saw developments in the country’s relationship with Russia. The first was 2001 when the pro-Russian government of President Leonid Kuchma was actively working to improve relations with Russia, partially at the behest of the rising Ukranian and Russian oligarchs. Then, in 2013, Ukraine had negotiated for increased political and economic ties with the European Union but withdrew from the agreement mere days before it was to be signed in order strengthen its ties to Russia.

Russia has had several military setbacks in Snake years. The Wood Snake year of 1905 saw the complete defeat of the country in its war with Japan, as well as a revolution against the government that led to a new constitution being adopted the following year. In 1941, Germany launched Operation Barbarossa, invading the Soviet Union and opening the Eastern Front in World War II. That invasion ended as Germany was ultimately defeated, though not before more than 26 million Soviet citizens had been killed and more than 70,000 of its towns and villages had been destroyed. Then, in 1989, the Soviet Union completely withdrew from Afghanistan, ending an unsuccessful invasion and 10 years of war.

Projecting this history into the future, it would seem that violence will continue in the Middle East even as steps (perhaps baby steps) are taken to bring some semblance of peace to the region. A cease fire has been implemented as this Snake year is beginning, and hat is a good sign.The coming year may also see the deaths of some prominent Middle Eastern leaders.

The war between Russia and Ukraine should end during the coming year with an accord between he two nations that will be seen as a defeat for Russia, though there will be some concessions by the Ukranians.

Military conflicts will develop elsewhere in the world. It is difficult to say where, though India, Pakistan, Egypt and Vietnam are likely areas of concern.

Another aspect of modern warfare is terrorism, and Snake year have seen more than their share. To mention only a couple of the major ones in the United States, of course we need to remember the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in 2001 and the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013. It is likely that there will be more acts of terrorism in the upcoming year.

DISASTERS

The upcoming Year of the Snake will most likely see its share of earthquakes, hurricanes, mass shootings and the like. However, when considering the disastrous events that may be best remembered from the year, those will probably be fires, airplane crashes, mining disasters and buildings collapsing.

As this post is being prepared, there are massive fires burning in California causing devastating loss of lives and destruction of property. This is happening at the end of the Year of the Wood Dragon. It is likely that more destructive fires will be seen in the Year of the Wood Snake.

As an example of what may occur, we may look way back to 1845, which was three Wood Snake years ago (180 years). That year saw what has been named the “Great New York City Fire”; another fire known as the “Great Fire of Pittsburgh,” which destroyed one-third of the city; two major fires occurred in Quebec City one month apart; and a large fire destroyed the city of Ponce, Puerto Rico.

During the most recent Wood Snake year (1965), much of the Watts area of Los Angeles was burned by fires started during a five-day race riot. In 1977, nearly 700 people were killed in China in a large fire started by a fireworks explosion. Fire was a major cause of death and destruction in 2001 when a hijacked plane crashed into the World Trade Center in New York on September 11. The most recent Snake year was 2013, when major fires occurred in Arizona, New Jersey and Quebec.

Even without the proclivity for fires in Snake years, fires have become larger and more frequent in recent years due to climate change. These fires may be seen as a kind of environmental disaster that is preventable. Unfortunately, there have also been notable environmental disasters in earlier Snake years. One of the most prominent was the Exxon Valdez oil spill that occurred in Alaska in 1989.

Turning to airplane crashes, there have been many in Snake years. Let us remind ourselves of some of the worst. In 1977, two airliners collided in Tenerife, Canary Islands and 583 people were killed. Shortly thereafter, another crash in Georgia killed 72 people. That same year, a Malaysian airlines flight was hijacked resulting in the death of another 100 people. In 1989, a plane crash in Sioux City, Iowa killed 112 people, though 184 did survive that crash. 2001 brought the 9/11 terrorist actions that caused planes to crash into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and a field in Pennsylvania. In 2013, there was serious loss of life from plane crashes in Laos and Russia. Unfortunately, there will probably be more crashes in the coming year.

Finally, let’s look at mining disasters and buildings collapsing. The most recent Wood Snake year (1965) was a particularly bad year for miners. That year, an accident in India killed 274, a coal mine explosion in Japan killed another 237 and 128 died in an accident in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Also, 90 workers were killed by an avalanche in Switzerland as they were building a dam. The most recent Snake year (2013) was a bad one for buildings, one of which collapsed in Bangladesh causing more than 1,100 deaths, and many people died when an apartment building collapsed in Medellin, Colombia.

CATHOLIC CHURCH

Many Snake years have been very significant for the Roman Catholic Church in the 20th and 21st Centuries. The second most recent Wood Snake year, 1905, saw France enacting a law ending the special status of the Church, granting religious freedom and establishing the separation of church and state. That was a terrible blow to the Catholic Church, and all of the legislators who voted in favor of the law were eventually excommunicated.

The most recent Wood Snake year was 1965. That year saw the conclusion of the Second Vatican Council which brought about substantial and important changes in Church doctrine and practice, such as saying mass in the vernacular.

More recently, in 2001, Pope John Paul II actively reached out, and traveled throughout the world to establish closer ties with other religious groups. In 2013, Pope Benedict XVI resigned as pope and Francis I was elected as the first Latin American pontiff.

The coming Year of the Snake should bring important developments for the Church. Possibly, there will be a new pope.

POLITICAL CORRUPTION

It is a sad fact of life that political corruption occurs in most years. It is certainly not something unique to Snake years. Nevertheless, Snake years are rife with examples. Since this post is already quite long, let’s just look at some of those examples in a recent Snake year, 1989.

In 1989, the Speaker of the House (Jim Wright) and the House Majority Whip (Tony Coelho) were both forced to resign because of investigations into their finances. Another representative (Robert Garcia) was convicted in a criminal trial for extortion and conspiracy. Congress impeached and convicted two federal judges, one for lying to a grand jury (Walter Nixon) and the other for conspiracy to accept bribes and perjury (Alcee Hastings).

Four years later, the good people of Florida elected former Judge Hastings to the U. S. House of Representatives where he served until his death in 2022. This is America, after all.

Also in 1989, Sen. John Tower was nominated by George H. W. Bush to be Secretary of Defense, but was rejected because of allegations of womanizing and heavy drinking. President Bush then named him chairman of the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board; this is America, after all.

That was also the year that Oliver North was convicted of several charges in connection with the Iran-Contra affair. Those convictions were overturned on appeal. This is America, after all.

Expect political corruption to be in the news in 2025. It may not make much difference for the corrupt individuals, though. This is America, after all.

TRUMP’S PROPOSALS

In the weeks before President Trump’s inauguration, he made several “promises” concerning actions he would take as president. He seemed most adamant about deporting “Illegal immigrants,” imposing tariffs on foreign goods, and expanding the territory of the United States to include Greenland, Canada and/or Panama. We will conclude this post by looking at how likely it is that those things will occur.

Immigration

The Snake years since 1965, which was the last Year of the Wood Snake, have seen significant changes in the type of immigration to the United States and in the way that immigration is perceived.

After World War II, the United States passed legislation making it easier for refugees from Europe and the Soviet Union to enter. Quotas were established as to the number of immigrants that would be accepted from various countries and geographic areas, with the largest number being of non-Hispanic White ethnicity.

The Immigration and Nationality Act was passed in 1965, removing those quotients and resulting in large increases of immigrants from Asia, Africa, the West Indies and parts of the Americas. At the time it was believed that the changes were not significant. However, in the years since, those changes have greatly altered the demographics of the United States. It has been estimated that if the old quota system had remained in place the population of the United States would now be about 75% non-Hispanic White. Sixty years later, though, non-Hispanic White residents comprise only about 56% of the American population.

By 1977, the official position of the United States remained in favor of large-scale immigration. President Carter proposed amnesty for undocumented immigrants, giving them a path to citizenship. A Select Committee on Immigration and Refugee Policy was formed, and its work over several years was the basis for legislation giving such immigrants a path to citizenship that was adopted during the second Reagan administration.

By 1989, the last of the Reagan years, this liberal attitude had led to a great surge in illegal immigration and there were extensive calls for the government to crack down and stop the influx of foreigners.

The next Snake year was 2001, the year of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Those acts of terror caused the government to focus strongly on border security and deporting undocumented aliens, especially those with any criminal record.

Since that time, the country has continued its efforts to enforce existing laws. Appropriations for immigration enforcement are now more than six times greater than they were before 9/11. Perhaps half of the enforcement actions have been conducted in secret, with the government refusing to disclose the identity of detainees, their location, or the nature of legal proceedings conducted in tribunals not open to public scrutiny.

That Orwellian enforcement regimen has been largely carried out under laws established in the 20th Century. During the last Snake year, 2013, the Senate passed sweeping immigration reform legislation; but it died in the House. No significant immigration reform legislation has been enacted since then.

It seems that in the 60 years since the last Wood Snake year the pendulum of immigration policy has reached the extreme opposite the fairly open immigration permitted after 1965. Trump’s first year of this term may well bring large-scale restrictions on immigration and immigrants.

Tariffs

Donald Trump has threatened to greatly increase tariffs charged by the United States early in his new term of office. During his first term he used the tariff power he had mostly as leverage in negotiations with Europe, China, Canada and Mexico. He has now spoken of imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and adding an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.

It appears, though, that the United States has never significantly increased tariffs in a Snake year. In the 19th Century, Snake years were the ones in which tariffs were reduced. The Tariff of 1833 was an act reducing tariffs that had already been reduced the preceding year. A part of James K. Polk’s platform in running for president was to reduce tariffs. He started that process almost as soon as he took office in 1845. Then, 12 years later, those reduced tariffs were decreased even more in the Snake year 1857.

The risk of Trump’s threatened increases actually happening is tied to several factors. Presently, more than 70% of imports to the U. S. are duty free. Any major increase in the imposition of tariffs is likely to cause retaliatory tariffs from other countries that will harm the American export market. The economic effect of major tariffs will be mostly negative and so will be opposed by many business sectors. Article I, Sections 8 and 10 of the U. S. Constitution give Congress the power to impose tariffs, not the executive branch. However, Congress has ceded away a good deal of that power and allowed the president to set tariffs without Congressional approval in various situations.

It seems likely that Trump will attempt to unilaterally impose some tariffs, though maybe not as large as he has threatened. Those tariffs will be met with legal challenges claiming that he has exceeded the power permitted him under existing laws. Some courts will likely stay questionable tariffs while others will permit their imposition. At the same time, some members of Congress will attempt to restrict the circumstances in which the president is empowered to impose tariffs, but that legislation will likely not pass until after midterm elections in 2026.

Territorial Expansion

In the weeks leading up to his inauguration, Donald Trump has suggested that the United States may annex Canada, Greenland and/or Panama, or take all or part of those other countries by force (though in his inaugural address he said that he wants to be “a peacemaker and unifier”; go figure). At first blush, such suggestions seem ridiculous. However, Snake years have been times of territorial expansion for the American nation. Military force has often been used.

Some of the expansions have been made to establish American influence in various regions and not to actually acquire more territory. For instance, in the Wood Snake year of 1905 President Roosevelt greatly expanded federal land holdings in the continental United States putting what would have been private or state property under the ownership of the federal government, In the most recent Wood Snake year, 1965, President Johnson sent ground troops to fight in Vietnam. Troops were also sent to the Dominican Republic to install a pro-American government, ending a civil war that Johnson said was leading to a “communist dictatorship.”

In other years, the U. S. acted to aggressively acquire territory. The first Wood Snake year after the establishment of the United States was 1845. That was the first year of Franklin Pierce’s term as president. He had campaigned on the promise to annex Texas, and that was done shortly after his inauguration. Doing so led directly to the Mexican War that began the next year and the acquisition of much more territory at the end of that war.

Pierce’s platform had also included bringing all of the “Oregon Country” into the United States. That territory extended northward to 54°40’ North Latitude, which is approximately the southern boundary of present day Alaska. Much of that land was also claimed by England. The U. S. and England had already fought two wars during the preceding 60 years and it appeared there may be another. The popular slogan of the day was ‘Fifty-Four Forty or Fight.” Cooler heads ultimately prevailed and a negotiated boundary at the 49th parallel was agreed upon the next year.

Canada became an independent commonwealth country shortly after the American Civil War and its status and boundaries were rather quickly recognized through treaties with the United States. There has been no serious effort for the United States to claim or annex any part of Canada since then. It is unlikely that such a thing will happen in the upcoming year.

Greenland is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. It is the largest island in the world. Its climate is inhospitable, though – 80% is covered by ice – and its population is only about 55,000. The northernmost military installation of the United States, Pituffik Space Base (formerly known as Thule Air Base), is located in Greenland, with about 1,100 American military and civilian personnel stationed there.

For a few years – between 1940 and 1945, which includes the Snake year 1941 – the United States did take custody of Greenland while Denmark was occupied by Nazi Germany. Since the end of World War II, the U. S. as returned control to Denmark and has made strategic use of its and NATO’s bases on the island as an integral part of missile tracking and defense systems and to offset Russian influence in the Arctic

The only significant event involving Greenland in recent Snake years was 1953 when the island became more fully integrated with Denmark and was given representation in Denmark’s parliament. Greenland has since attained home rule and greater autonomy, but there is no historical indication that it will become a part of the United States in the coming year.

There has been more involvement by the United States in Panama during Snake years. The French had planned to build a canal across the Isthmus of Panama, but their efforts were unsuccessful. The United States agreed to take over the construction project, and assisted Panama, which was then a part of Colombia, in declaring its independence, and provided military support against Colombia. Just weeks after Panama became independent, the United States was granted control over a strip of land known as the Canal Zone, which encompassed the route of the canal and adjacent lands. Part of the area was granted in perpetuity while other parts were given as a 99 year lease.

The canal was completed some ten years later and has operated successfully for more than a century. Relations between the United States and Panama were always tense, though, as the Panamanians viewed the American presence in the Canal Zone as an infringement on their sovereignty. In the Snake year 1977, two treaties were signed to address the future of the Canal Zone.

One treaty provided that as of December 31, 1999, the Canal Zone would no longer exist and Panama would assume full control of the canal and be responsible for its operation and defense. Under the other treaty, known as the “Neutrality Treaty,” the United States was given the permanent right to defend the canal against any threat that might interfere with the canal’s neutral service to international shipping.

The United States continued to exercise a great deal of power in Panama. During the next Snake year, 1989, the United States determined to arrest and prosecute Manuel Noriega, the corrupt leader of Panama, who was believed to be aiding American enemies such as Cuba. His arrest was accomplished by a full-scale invasion of Panama by 27,000 U. S. troops, bombing of properties related to Noriega and a siege of the Vatican embassy in Panama where Noriega had taken refuge (which included psychological warfare consisting of playing Van Halen music at a loud volume). He was charged and convicted with drug trafficking, racketeering and money laundering.

Clearly, the United States has not been reticent to assert its considerable power in matters related to Panama. Based on the rights reserved under the Neutrality Treaty, we may see the U. S. declare that the neutrality of the Panama Canal has been compromised – perhaps by improved relations between Panama and China – and take military action to defend the canal. This will probably happen when the government wants to distract the populace from domestic problems.

Gong xi fa cai. Gong hey fat choy. Happy New Year.

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