The Oriental Lunar Calendar marks the Year of the Metal Rat as beginning with the new moon on January 25, 2020. As you probably know, each year is symbolized by one of twelve animals and each of those animal years cycles through affinities to the five elements – fire, earth, metal, water and wood. We now come to the Year of the Metal Rat, which occurs every 60 years. The Rat is the first animal in the hierarchy, so this is the beginning of a new 12-year cycle.
In this post, we will make some predictions for what may occur in the coming year. These predictions are not based on a belief that I am any more (or less) psychic than you are, or upon the traditional analysis used in Chinese astrology, Rather, we are looking at what has happened in previous Rat years and trying to extrapolate to the present.
A review of previous cycles is a bit difficult due to the nature of Rat years. Rats are seen as intelligent, shrewd, creative, freedom-loving and even downright sneaky. They don’t fall into established patterns like many of the other animals.
The most important event in the coming year looks to be the U. S. presidential election, so this post will focus on that, as well as concomitant economic matters. First, though, we can look very briefly at some other things to consider:
Queen Victoria died in the Year of the Metal Rat (1901) and King Edward VIII abdicated the throne in another Year of the Rat (1936). It seems that Queen Elizabeth should be particularly watchful of her health this year.
Weather has played an important role in Rat years. Two major hurricanes have hit Galveston, Texas (1900 and 2008); the Titanic was sunk by an iceberg (1912); severe earthquakes have struck in Iran, China and Indonesia (1972 and 1996); and thousands of Americans have died in an intense heat wave (1936). No year goes by any more without natural emergencies, and we can expect more in the coming months, especially with the climate change crisis.
As this is being written, many are concerned that the United States may go to war with Iran or otherwise cause a new world war. Looking back through American history, however, the U. S. has never begun a major war in a Rat year. Rats are too smart to be very combative. There have been battles against indigenous tribes and incursions into Latin American countries, but no major war. It seems, therefore, that war is unlikely at this time – unless Donald Trump feels that a war would help his re-election chances, in which case he would probably cause one on purpose.
There has also been concern that the United States may be on the verge of an economic recession. This is an area in which those shrewd Rats do not provide much guidance, Since 1800, there have been 18 Rat years. In nine of those years, the country was in a recession or depression. In the other nine, it was not. The last recession – the “Great Recession” – was in full swing in 2008; and since then we have experienced a prolonged recovery. We may be due for another economic pullback, but there is only a 50-50 chance that we will see it this year. There was a recession during each of the last three Years of the Metal Rat (1840, 1900 and 1960), so perhaps it is really more likely than not that we will see one in the coming months. If one does begin, it would be very detrimental to President Trump’s re-election bid.
Now, let us focus on the upcoming presidential election. Surely, Donald Trump is the last Republican president, and the question is whether he will be a one-term or two-term president.
I say that not as an interpretation of past data, but as an objective look forward. The Republican Party has become the party of old white men, and that is a declining demographic. As the Republicans are losing their base, thousands of new voters are turning 18 each day. Most of the younger Americans are smart enough to see that the world they are going to have to fix is being destroyed by Republicans and their ilk. The question is going to be whether the demographic shift in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida will be large enough to swing the electoral college.
Another question should be: Why would anyone want to be elected president this year. Sure, we can talk about egomaniacs seeking power; but this may not be the best year to try. The Year of the Metal Rat has occurred three times since the United States became a country, and each time the winner of the presidential election has failed to live through his term.
In 1840, William Henry Harrison became very ill at his inauguration ceremony and died about a month later. William McKinley won the 1900 election, and he was assassinated the following year. Then, John Kennedy won in 1960 only to be assassinated in his first term.
Now, the incumbent, Donald Trump, is an obese elderly man, in poor physical condition and under a great deal of stress. We cannot even be sure that his health will permit him to run again, though nearly everyone believes he will. We don’t know who the Democratic nominee will be, but the three leading candidates would all be at least 75, and two would be over 80, by the end of his or her first term. There is no upper age limit for a president. However, this year’s field may give some impetus to setting one. In any event, the vice-presidential nominee should be looked at very closely, as that person may become president sooner rather than later
There have been a total of 10 Rat years since the beginning of the 20th Century, each of which was a presidential election year, of course. Following this discussion is a summary of various political and economic matters in each of those years. You can refer to that chart as you wish. Right now we are going to try to further summarize the data to see what patterns, if any, may emerge. Of those 10 elections, six were won by the Democratic and four by the Republican; while seven have been won by the incumbent party and three by challengers. In fact, over all presidential elections in any year, the incumbent has won about 70% of the time. Thus, President Trump has a distinct advantage going into the campaign.
It has been pointed out that the Democrats were very successful in the midterm elections two years ago, and that momentum may carry over to this year’s election. However, as is so typical of Rat years, history shows that the party making the most gains in the midterms has won five of the subsequent presidential elections and has lost five. So, not much can be predicted from that. The way that voters felt two years ago may not be the same as they feel today.
Pundits often look to the rate of unemployment in the economy, on the theory that the more people who are working, the more will be satisfied with the present government. The statistics support that to some degree. During four of the Rat Year elections, the unemployment rate has risen during the year, and in those years the incumbent has won two and lost two. In the three years that unemployment has remained relatively steady, the incumbent won every time. In the other three years, when there was a drop in the unemployment rate, the incumbent won twice and lost once. The one year the incumbent lost with unemployment falling was 1912, when the Republicans split their votes and gave the election to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. These figures indicate that unless the rate of unemployment is actually rising going into the election, the incumbent is likely to win. Right now the rate of unemployment is very low, and is expected to stay that way, which will benefit Mr. Trump.
The rate of inflation during Rat Years has generally been fairly low. The highest was just over 7% (1912), and there was even one year with actual deflation (1900). In typical Rat fashion, no predictive patterns seem to emerge from the inflation data.
In many ways, the stock market is a good proxy for the overall economy – it goes up when the economy is good and down when the economy is bad. During Rat Years, the incumbent has won all six elections with a rising stock market and lost both in which it was falling. The other two years, the market was relatively flat and the incumbent won once and lost once. Clearly, the direction of the stock market is the most consistent indicator that we have examined.
Right now, it looks like the S&P 500 stock market index will be somewhere around 3,300 when the Year of the Rat begins. It seems likely that the incumbent, Mr. Trump would win if that average was above, say 3,470 come election day – especially if the unemployment rate does not increase. It seems that he would lose if the average falls below about 3,130 – especially if the unemployment rate begins to rise. If it stays between those parameters, it will not have much predictive value.
This is the end of the first part of the Year of the Rat discussion. In the second part, we will look at each of the elections occurring during Rat Years to try to give some context to these variables.
Rat Year Election Variables
1900
Winner: William McKinley
Winning Party: Republican
Incumbent Won
Stock Market: Up
Unemployment Rate: 5.0% (unchanged from prior year)
Inflation Rate: -2.41%
Prior Midterms: Republican
Close Election
McKinley assassinated the next year
1912
Winner: Woodrow Wilson
Winning Party: Democrat
Incumbent Lost
Stock Market: Down
Unemployment Rate: 5.2% (down from prior year)
Inflation Rate: 7.34%
Prior Midterms: Democrat
Close Election
Wilson served full term
1924
Winner: Calvin Coolidge
Winning Party: Republican
Incumbent Won
Stock Market: Up
Unemployment Rate: 5.5% (up significantly from prior year)
Inflation Rate: 0%
Prior Midterms: Democrat
Not a Close Election
Coolidge served full term
1936
Winner: Franklin Roosevelt
Winning Party: Democrat
Incumbent Won
Stock Market: Up
Unemployment Rate: 16.9% (down significantly from prior year)
Inflation Rate: 2.17%
Prior Midterms: Democrat
Landslide Victory
Roosevelt died in office, though after two more re-elections
1948
Winner: Harry Truman
Winning Party: Democrat
Incumbent Won
Stock Market: Little Changed
Unemployment Rate: 4.0% (up from prior year)
Inflation Rate: 1.27%
Prior Midterm: Republican
Close Election
Truman served full term
1960
Winner: John Kennedy
Winning Party: Democrat
Incumbent Lost
Stock Market: Little Changed
Unemployment Rate: 6.6% (up from prior year)
Inflation Rate: 1.71%
Prior Midterms: Democrat
Close Election
Kennedy was assassinated in 1963
1972
Winner: Richard Nixon
Winning Party: Republican
Incumbent Won
Stock Market: Up
Unemployment Rate: 5.2% (little changed from prior year)
Inflation Rate: 3.65%
Prior Midterms: Democrat
Landslide Victory
Nixon resigned in disgrace
1984
Winner: Ronald Reagan
Winning Party: Republican
Incumbent Won
Stock Market: Little Changed
Unemployment Rate: 7.3% (down from prior year)
Inflation Rate: 3.53%
Prior Midterms: Democrat
Landslide Victory
Reagan served full term
1996
Winner: William Clinton
Winning Party: Democrat
Incumbent Won
Stock Market: Up
Unemployment Rate: 5.4% (little changed from prior year
Inflation Rate: 3.04%
Prior Midterms: Republican
Large Margin of Victory
Clinton served full term
2008
Winner: Barack Obama
Winning Party: Democrat
Incumbent Lost
Stock Market Down
Unemployment Rate: 7.3% (up significantly from prior year)
Inflation Rate: 0.03%
Prior Midterms: Democrat
Landslide Victory
Obama served full term
Democrats won 6 of 10
Incumbent Won 7 of 10
Incumbent won all 6 elections with stock market up
Incumbent lost both elections with stock market down
When stock market flat, incumbent won 1 and lost 1
When unemployment rate up, incumbent won 2 and lost 2 (3 Democrats and 1 Republican)
When unemployment rate down, incumbent won 2 and lost 1 (2 Democrats and 1 Republican)
When little change in unemployment rate, incumbent won all 3 (1 Democrats and 1 Republican)
Party that won prior midterms won presidency 5 out of 10 times
No relationship between inflation rate and results
I have some reflections on the subjects you covered here, including the English monarchy, weather, war, and wealth. And of course the deserved focus on the American Presidency, which is a troubling and anxious topic these days.
The monarchy has already seen an instance of mortality as Harry and Meghan, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, have left this vale of tears in England and migrated to Vancouver BC in Canada – a vale of rain, and lots of it. The paparazzi – those stubborn descendants of the hardy souls who first set forth upon the oceans to capture the souls of indigenous people in cameras, pay them with small pox and deliver those souls to the machineries of imperialistic capitalists – are now studying Canadian privacy laws, seeking loopholes which will allow them to continue their traditions. There is a bitter karmic return to the monarchy in play here, but I can not see how it is a just one. Harry and Meghan appear to be hapless victims of circumstance rather than…
Wait a minute. That’s it! It’s a karmic return from all the hapless victims of the English Colonial circumstance. Wow. Karma really is a bitch…
Your mention of the sinking of the Titanic as a Metal Rat year event makes me wonder what the American ship of state might run into in 2020. It has already built up a considerable charge of karmic debt due to the hubris and crudity of its Commander in misChief and is headed toward the Thunberg Straits – the home of those coming of age voters you mentioned. Perhaps the Metal Rat antenna will attract a serious load of balancing karmic retribution this year as a result. I certainly hope so.
The prospect for new wars is problematic. America has exported more wars than it has imported, so there is a seeming historical imbalance there. Perhaps this is the year when that karmic imbalance will be rectified too, at least to some degree. Our leadership appears quite willing to call down the thunder and lightning on us all, inviting Russian interference in our elections, inspiring economic antagonism in China, and fooling around with the odd impulse to suddenly assassinate a leader in a precariously balanced Middle East without benefit (or knowledge) of diplomacy.
Diplomats, the most intelligent and competent folks in American government, have been reduced to a ridiculous metaphor: they are adults playing a serious game of international Jenga, trying very carefully to set the next block in place while an 8-year-old turd named Donnie pokes them in the ear with a sharp stick, and his all-thumbs henchman Rudy simultaneously gooses them from behind. This, pathetic as it is, is nevertheless 2020 Metal Rat wiliness at its zenith. We wait in awe as it descends from there.
As far as wealth and economics are concerned, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently warned that the record or near-record levels of wealth inequality in the United States, United Kingdom and many other parts of the world, combined with the rapid advancement of technology, feels a lot like the 1920s, which ultimately led to financial disaster.
I agree, although the 1920’s were characterized by Frederick Lewis Allen and others as a “revolution in manners and morals.” I think that the era of flappers, rakes and profligate living were somehow a bit classier than this era of porn stars, old white serial rapists and – sigh – profligate living.
It is already clear that the 2020’s will be an era marked by the devolution of manners and morals, a condition incubated by the Republican Party for the last two decades. The “base” is now patently precisely that, and no improvement seems likely. Facts are fake, spin is king, and the presiding sentiment in their ranks is “screw ya if ya can’t take a joke.”
If there is another economic cataclysm birthed in 2020 we can be sure that once again the most astute and monied captains of economics will again rise to the occasion with exclamations of – you guessed it – “Screw ya if ya can’t take a joke.” And, “Oh, by the way – loan me a trillion will ya, I’m a little short today.”
After that another 21 million members of the middle class will again be disenfranchised and only a small percentage will ever find their way back into the discredited statistic laughingly known as the unemployment index. It will be 2008 all over again. That was, by the way, another Rat year – the year of the Earth Rat, when accidental (how the hell were we supposed to know that swap files were a bad idea, we were making a LOT of money) injuries are likely to happen, and luck in wealth is not very good
There is a daisy in the economic mud but the boots are rapidly approaching. It wants to Make America Think Harder, but the red baseball caps are definitely gonna fix that. Andrew Yang has managed to isolate the primary kernel in the bad economic code of American consumer capitalism and proposes to fix it by injecting a stimulant into our stagnant and moribund economic circulatory system. It is elegant, it is simple, and it is an inspired and intelligent piece of work. And it doesn’t have a chance.
Finally, the American Presidency… There have been so many links forged in his karmic chain since Mr. Trump took office it is reasonable to assume that balance will not wait upon reincarnating him as a Florida cockroach, but will instead take on an unusual vigor and soon submit him to some measure of the formidable payback he has earned. I hope so.
Those of us who have tried to exercise patience while waiting on God are aware of how long it takes sometimes before the response comes in. Lord, my patience is wearing thin. And this is not a situation where no answer, or “Let it be,” will do. I really mean it this time. Gimme an answer, or kill me. I won’t settle for less.
PS: Louis, feel free to delete this response. I am old, and as a result have developed a chronic indignation which tends to flare up at times.