I am writing this on May 19, 2024, which is about 100 days into the Year of the Dragon. One of the predictions made back in January was that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would rise above 40,000 this year. Well, last Friday that average closed at 40,0003, and it is poised to go higher. (The S&P 500 and NASDAQ averages have done even better than the Dow, but round numbers are easier to comprehend.)  The most recent Year of the Wood Dragon – which was 1964 – might give some guidance as to what may be expected from here.

In 1964, the stock market was strong during the first few months of the year, just as it has been this year. Then, in April there was a significant correction – again, just as occurred this year. That was followed by a strong market through mid-summer with another pullback in August. The market then rose sharply in September and was flat for the rest of the year. We shall see whether something similar is seen over the rest of this Dragon year.

Some of the other predictions from January have already come about, though we are only about three months into the year. It was predicted that major flooding could be expected this year, and we have certainly seen that. Unprecedented, devastating floods have been experienced in Houston, Texas, Brazil, South China, East Africa, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Afghanistan, Sumatra, Kazakhstan, Russia, and other places around the world. Hundreds of lives have been lost and property damage measures in the billions of dollars.

It was also predicted that there would be transportation disasters, even including buses and shipping. So far, we have seen the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore after one of its piers was struck by a container ship and a barge destroyed a portion of the Pelican Island Bridge in Galveston.

Earlier this month, there was a serious, fatal crash of a “party bus” in Maryland and the crash of a bus filled with farm workers that left eight dead in Florida.

It will certainly be interesting to see what we will experience during the rest of this Year of the Dragon. The first part of it has been unfolding pretty much as predicted, though.