The predictions for this Year of the Dragon are fairly lengthy, so we will post them in two parts. Part 1 looks at the economy and the presidential election in the United States. This Part 2 considers other matters that may be important in the coming year.
Before we begin this discussion, here is an executive summary of the predictions from both Parts 1and 2:
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The Chinese (Oriental, lunar) New Year begins on February 10, 2024. Based upon a progression of years moving in a 12-year cycle – each year associated with a particular animal – this is the Year of the Dragon. The most recent Dragon year was 12 years ago, in 2012. Each year is also associated with one of the five elements – wood, fire, earth, metal and water – and this is going to be a wood year. It is the Year of the Wood Dragon. Combining those two cycles, one sees that the Year of the Wood Dragon repeats every 60 years (12 x 5). The most recent Year of the Wood Dragon was 1964.
What will this new year bring? That is always an interesting question. In this post we will make some predictions, and then see what really happens. These predictions are not based on astrology or psychic abilities; they are based on analyzing cycles. Assuming that there is a basis for the cycles that are recognized in Chinese astrology, it should be possible to look at what has occurred in similar past years and extrapolate what may be coming in the future. That is the approach we are taking here.
You may wonder how accurate this method of predicting has been. Well, the track record is pretty good. Last year – the Year of the Rabbit – began with almost every economist and pundit predicting a recession and a bad year for the stock market. Looking at the cycles, though, we said that there would not be a recession and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could reach an all-time high. Both of those things came to pass.
We also warned that Turkey and Ecuador were prone to major earthquakes. Well a devastating earthquake, measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale, struck in Turkey only days after the Year of the Rabbit began, causing some 60,000 deaths and incredible damage. Only a month later, a strong earthquake measuring 6.8 was experienced in Ecuador. It caused extensive damage, but only a few deaths.
Other predictions were also accurate, but we should turn now to the predictions for the coming year. Here is an executive summary of all the predictions:T
In Chinese astrology, Dragon years are usually considered an auspicious time of good luck. Research has shown that significantly more babies are born in Oriental populations during Dragon years than in the preceding or following years because parents believe that Dragon children will be lucky and successful. The Wood element is
said to represent the Spring season, and symbolizes growth, renewal and vitality. Therefore, the coming Year of the Wood Dragon should be a good one for many people. There will be ups and downs, but overall we should be optimistic.
Natural Disasters
Every year brings its share of earthquakes, blizzards, hurricanes, tornadoes and other natural disasters; and we will see those in the coming year. In fact, some may be even worse than normal because of the human-driven climate changes we are experiencing. One thing that stands out during Dragon years, though, is floods.
For instance, the Wood Dragon year of 1844 brought what has been called the “Great Flood of 1844.” In terms of discharge, that was the largest flood that has ever been recorded on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers.
In the next Wood Dragon year, 1904, Sacramento, California, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, both experienced their most destructive floods in history.
The most recent Wood Dragon year brought the “Christmas Flood of 1964” to the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. Unusually heavy snowfall followed by an
“atmospheric river” caused widespread and destructive flooding beginning in mid-December and continuing through the first week in January of 1965. By the time it ended, this disaster had become the worst flooding ever experienced on almost every river in the area. The National Weather Service declared the flood to be the fifth worst weather event experience in Oregon during the 20th Century.
In more recent Dragon years, we experienced the Big Thompson River Flood in Colorado, which caused 143 deaths, in 1976. In 1988, nearly 2,500 people were killed in Bangladesh by floods caused by monsoon rains. Early 2000 saw over 1,000 people killed in flooding in Mozambique and Madagascar; and the autumn of that year brought heavy flooding to Western Europe. During the most recent Dragon year, 2012, there was serious flooding across Asia from May through September.
It would not be surprising if major floods will also be experienced during the coming year.
Transportation
Matters relating to transportation have been highlighted during Dragon years.
Looking first at Wood Dragon years, we find that in 1844, Charles Goodyear received a patent for the vulcanization process to strengthen rubber. This led to the development of modern tires (and almost anything made with rubber, really). Work began on the Panama Canal in 1904; That was the year in which the first underground line of the New York subway opened, and the East Boston Tunnel was opened for street cars. The Urban Mass Transportation Act was signed into law in 1964, providing the basis for federal grants and loans to assist local transportation projects. Also in 1964, Jerrie Mock became the first woman to fly solo around the world.
Developments concerning transportation have occurred in other Dragon years: In 1976, Conrail was formed to take control of 13 major Northeastern railroads that had filed bankruptcy, and that organization was sold to the public in 1988 before it was ultimately divided between Norfolk Southern and CSX.
In many ways, however, these advancements were overshadowed by the disasters that have occurred on almost every type of transportation during Dragon years.
Airline crashes happen every year, and in Dragon years there have been many, and they have been the result of almost any cause you can think of: There has been criminal activity, like 1964, when an airliner crashed after the pilot and co-pilot were shot and killed by a suicidal passenger; or 1988, when Pan Am Flight 103 was destroyed by a terrorist bomb over Lockerbie, Scotland. There have been midair collisions, like the one in 1976 near Zagreb, Yugoslavia. In 1988, an Iran Air flight was “mistakenly” destroyed by a U.S. missile, killing 290 people. There have been weather-related crashes, crashes caused by pilot error, crashes at air shows and crashes into mountainsides.
Dragon years have also seen hundreds of people killed in train accidents in France (1988), Norway (2000), Austria (2000), Egypt (2012), Argentina (2012) the Netherlands (2012), Burma (2012) and many other places, including Midland, Texas, in the United States (2012).
Many other people have died in accidents involving shipping, such as passenger liners and ferry boats. Here are some examples: Back in 1844, a gun on the USS Princeton exploded while cruising on the Potomac River, killing many people, including two U.S. cabinet members. In 1904, a Danish ocean liner ran aground and there was a fire on a steamboat in New York’s East River, the latter incident causing more than 1,000 deaths. A ferry boat sank in the Mississippi River in 1976. More than 80 people died when a ship sank in the Aegean Sea in 2000. In 2012, the last Dragon year, a ferry collision in Hong Kong resulted in hundreds of deaths and injuries.
There have also been a number of deadly bus crashes in Dragon years. Among the worst was a 1988 crash in Monterey, Mexico, in which there were more than 100 fatalities.
There have even been deaths resulting from cable car accidents. That happened in Cavalese, Italy in 1976, causing 43 deaths.
Based on this history, we can expect positive developments in the field of transportation in 2024, and we can expect transportation disasters.
Gun Violence
Unfortunately, during any year we can predict that there will be mass shootings in the United States, and that prediction will come to pass. It will be no different in 2024. We know what needs to be done to curb the violence, but the country does not have the political will to do it.
Mass shootings probably are not any more prevalent in Dragon years than in any other
year. We should be aware, though, that the last Year of the Dragon saw the massacre of 20 elementary school children and 6 adults, on December 14, 2012, at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut.
Earlier that year, there was a mass shooting at Oikos University, a Korean Christian college in Oakland, California. Another mass shooting at a university occurred in 1976 when a university employee killed 7 people and injured others at California State University, Fullerton. In 1988, there were mass killings in two schools in Illinois.
It is not only in the United States that such things have happened. In the last Wood Dragon year, 1964, a man entered a Catholic elementary school in Cologne, Germany, and killed 10 people, mostly elementary students, and injured 12 more, using a flamethrower and a spear Although a gun was not used in the attack, the incident is certainly worth mentioning.
We have had too many school shootings in Dragon years. It seems that all we can do is pray that none will be suffered in 2024.
Racism
The relationship between different races, both in the United States and elsewhere, has been important in past Dragon years. In one of those years, 1868, the United States adopted the 14th Amendment to the Constitution. Among other things, the amendment addressed citizenship rights and equal protection under law in response to the plight of formerly enslaved Americans.
The most recent year of the Wood Dragon was 1964, and that was a landmark year for civil rights in the United States. Most notably, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 became law. That act prohibits discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex and national origin. Not only were the rights of millions protected under the Act, it also changed the political structure of the country. The Southern states had been a solidly Democratic bloc since the Civil War. However, since the Act was proposed by President Kennedy and passed under President Johnson, both Democrats, the South swung to a Republican voting bloc, as it remains today.
Also in 1964, the 24th Amendment to the U. S. Constitution was adopted, prohibiting the imposition of poll taxes or other taxes in order to vote. Several states had adopted poll taxes to prevent the poor (mainly minorities) from participating in elections. That was also the year that civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr. won the Nobel Peace Prize, and in which the Beatles refused to play a concert in Jacksonville, Florida until they were assured that the audience would be integrated, and not segregated as had been planned by the promoters. Sidney Poitier became the first Black actor to win the Oscar for best actor.
There have been setbacks in civil rights and race relations in Dragon years, too. In 1904, a year of the Wood Dragon, Germany began a genocide campaign in what is now Namibia, killing more than 100,000 Herero and Namaqua people over a four-year period. In 1940, the Auschwitz-Berkenau death camps were opened in Poland. Over 1 million prisoners, mostly Jews, were murdered in those camps during World War II.
Even 1964, which saw so many advances in civil rights, had many racial problems. In the United States, there were race riots in Harlem, Philadelphia and other cities. In Singapore there were race riots between Chinese and Malay residents. Jerusalem and Israel experienced violent riots known as the “Second Intifada” in 2000 after Ariel Sharon visited the Temple Mount.
As we enter 2024, racial prejudices still exist in the United States and Israel has been accused of genocide against Palestinians. These things continue, but perhaps some progress will be made this year.
Technology
Dragon years have been times of impressive technological advances. Going back to the Wood Dragon year of 1844, that was the year that Samuel F. B. Morse sent the first electric telegraph message: “What hath God wrought.” In the next Wood Dragon year, 1904, work was begun on the Panama Canal, one of the greatest technological achievements of all time. The most recent Wood Dragon year, 1964, was the year the first computer programs were written in BASIC.
Looking at more recent Dragon years, 1976 was the year Apple sold its first computer, the first laser printer was marketed and the first commercially developed super computer was introduced by Cray Research,
In 1988, the first official internet connection was established between the United States and Europe. It was also the year that the first computer worm was released on the internet. Not all technology is good.
The camera phone was introduced in 2000, changing the lives of millions of people all around the world. Near the end of that Dragon year, in early 2001, Wikipedia was launched. 2000 was also the year that the “dot com bubble” burst on Wall Street, and the value of many overpriced speculative tech stocks tumbled, causing investors to lose trillions of dollars.
In 2012, a SpaceX capsule became the first commercial spacecraft to dock with the International Space Station and NASA’s Curiosity Rover landed on Mars.
It seems likely that in the coming year we will see impressive technological advances, probably in fields like artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and space travel.
Ukraine War
The major geopolitical event of the past two years has been the war in Ukraine following its invasion by Russia. It is a bit difficult to make predictions about that situation based on past cycles because Ukraine has been an independent country for such a short time. Russia, though, has been involved in several wars during Dragon years, so we will look at those.
The Russians have had military success during the past two Years of the Metal Dragon, 1940 and 2000. After entering a non-agression pact with Nazi Germany, Russia set out to expand its territory in 1940. A war with Finland ended with Finland ceding territory to Russia, and Russia invaded the Baltic States and incorporated them into the Soviet Union. The Second Chechen War ended in 2000 with Russia establishing direct rule over Chechnya.
Other Dragon years have not seen such Russian victories. The Russo-Japanese War began in 1904, a Wood Dragon year like this one. That ended in a major defeat for Russia in 1906, and a revolution in 1905. In 1988, Russia commenced its complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, another bitter defeat.
The most recent Wood Dragon year was 1964. There was not a major war that year, but there was an internal coup. Nikita Khrushchev had been the Russian leader since Stalin’s death in 1953. In 1964, Khrushchev was forced out, placed under a special house arrest, and replaced by Leonid Brezhnev.
Since this is not a Metal Dragon year, a Russian victory is not expected in Ukraine. Rather, it seems that this should be a difficult year for Russian troops, though the war will probably not end this year.
Overall, though, this should be a pretty good year – despite some of these dire predictions. The way it often works is that good happens gradually over a period, but is interrupted by some not so good things that grab our attention. I hope this Dragon year is good for you.
Gong xi fa cai. Gong hey fat choy. Happy New Year.