YEAR OF THE SNAKE – A LOOK BACK

Year of the Snake – A Look Back

Thrattlesnake cliparte Year of the Water Snake in Chinese astrology is drawing to a close.  Later this week I will post some predictions for the upcoming Year of the Wood Horse, but first let us review how well last year’s predictions (posted here) worked out.

Most of the good things that were predicted did come to pass.  Stock markets reached record highs and the U. S. unemployment rate fell to 7%.  I thought there would be a significant step toward modernization in a major religion; and Pope Francis I was elected and is leading the Roman Catholic Church in that direction.  A major product announcement from Apple was predicted, and we now have the new iPhone 5 and 5s and 5c.  Initially, it appeared that this was not a huge innovation, but it has proved to be Apple’s most successful new product ever.

I said there would be some volatility in precious metals prices after gold’s huge rise, and that was the case, with the metals giving back some of their earlier gains.  Another prediction was for a volcanic eruption in Central America.  Popocatepetl in Mexico was threatening throughout the year, but did not have a full-blown eruption.  The Chapparristique Volcano did erupt in El Salvador, causing the evacuation of thousands of people.

Major floods were predicted, Continue reading “YEAR OF THE SNAKE – A LOOK BACK”

ULTIMATE BABY SHOWER PLAYLIST

Baby ShowerOur daughter Suzanne has a baby due in January, and this past weekend my wife Cathy put on a baby shower for her.  Suzanne’s mother-in law was in town from Idaho and the Holidays are coming, so this seemed the best time.  It was a gathering of girls, so my participation was in picking up things like the cake and veggie platter, helping set up, helping clean up, and putting together the music for the party.  I call this the “ultimate” playlist because it is the final one I stuck with after several tries.  One last thing I should add before showing the list is that when a grandparent chooses the music, a lot of the songs are from the “good old days.”  Here is what I chose – with input from Cathy, of course.

Update:  Ryder, for whom this list was prepared, is 15 months old (as I post this) and now we learn that he will have a new baby brother or sister in October.  That means we will soon need to come up with a new baby shower play list.  If you have any suggestions, please pass them on in the comments – they are most welcome.  More than 200 people come to this page each week, and your suggestions may also be helpful to some of them.

Continue reading “ULTIMATE BABY SHOWER PLAYLIST”

COLORADO FLOODS

I have called this site the “Ralston Creek Review” because Ralston Creek is just down the hill from our house, and my wife Cathy and our dog Darcy and I walk along there nearly every day.  Usually at this time of year the creek is four or five feet wide and less than a foot deep.  This year is different.  Colorado has been hit by massive rains from a monsoonal flow on steroids.

Over the first 8+ months of 2013, the Front Range had received barely 11 inches of precipitation.  In the present series of storms, many places got more than 14 inches of rain in 3 days.  At our house, we probably got half that.

Anyway, I would like to share a couple of photos showing how little Ralston Creek has been affected by this rain:

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAThis is only minor flooding, of course; and it is attenuated by the fact that most of the runoff was held back by a dam at a reservoir about five miles upstream.

 

 

 

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAThe situation could certainly be much worse – and for many throughout the Eastern half of Colorado, it is much worse.  At least four people have died in the flooding.  Thousands are stranded or homeless.  Billions of dollars of damage has been done.  Roads and other infrastructure have been completely destroyed in places.  Here are some pictures that have been shown repeatedly in local media over the past few days:

2013 flood

2013 flood #2

 

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DUALITY – PART 2, OR PERMISSION TO HEAL, SIR

May 21, 2013

Duality – Part 2
Or
Permission To Heal, Sir

I recently wrote more than 1,000 words on the subject of duality.  A more thorough explication is found in 33 words from the Tao Te Ching:

The Tao begot one.
One begot two.
Two begot three.
And three begot the ten thousand things.
The ten thousand things carry Yin and embrace Yang.
They achieve harmony by combining these forces

If this material world of ours – the 10,000 things – arose from the harmonious energy of the Yin and the Yang, then separation and duality are inherent in its structure.  Unity is found on a different level.

A gentleman from Idaho Springs, Colorado – Al Brown – once gave me a good demonstration of this concept.  He began with a package of two saltine crackers that came with a bowl of soup at a restaurant.  The package was the one.  He opened the package and removed the crackers.  The one begot two.  Then he took the action of holding those crackers and crushing them – the action being the three – and from it arose the 10,000.  To reach a place where there is unity and not duality, it is necessary to return to the level of the original package.

Based on some recent events, I would like to revisit the subject now in a slightly different context.  Continue reading “DUALITY – PART 2, OR PERMISSION TO HEAL, SIR”

YEAR OF THE SNAKE UPDATE

May 16, 2013

Year of the Snake Update

We are now more than a quarter of the way through the Year of the Water Snake 2013, so let us take a look at how some of the projections made back on the eve of Chinese New Year are playing out.

First, it was suggested that this year would see a major religion move boldly toward modernization.  Certainly that seems to be what is occurring in the Roman Catholic church with the unprecedented resignation of Pope Benedict XVI – a very conservative pontiff – and the election of Francis I, the first Latin American pope.  Francis’ agenda is not yet clear, but all that has happened constitutes a major change and reflects a recognition of the growing importance of non-European countries to the Church.

It was also said that the stock market would advance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising above 14,500.  That has already happened.  It was also said that some major event could pull the market down very rapidly.  So far, nothing like that has happened.  With any luck, it may not; though it remains a possibility.

Also concerning economic matters, it was suggested that precious metals prices would be volatile, with a reference made to the Panic of 1893.  In fact, gold and silver prices have both fallen.  It does not seem that the decreasing value of precious metals will lead to a depression as it did 120 years ago.

The earlier post suggested that the U. S. unemployment rate should dip below 7% this year.  The year began with the rate at 7.9%.  It has already dropped to 7.5%, and it should continue to improve.

It was further suggested that we should be wary of terrorist or military attacks.  The Boston Marathon bombing is a good example of the potential threats that still remain.  The civil war in Syria continues, with additional risks arising from Israeli air attacks.

Another threat mentioned was that of a volcano or earthquake in Latin America.  Nothing major has yet occurred, but Mexico’s Popocatepetl is showing signs of an imminent eruption, and certainly bears watching.

Finally, the projection was made that watered down gun control legislation would be enacted, but those laws would not end  the trend we have seen in mass shootings.  Well, there has in fact been watered down legislation enacted in several states, including here in Colorado – and just last week was a mass shooting at a Mother’s Day parade in New Orleans.  We need to hope and pray that these shooting sprees will come to an end.

Three quarters of this Snake Year remains, so another update will be posted in two nor three months.

DAY 16 – COFFEE

March 25, 2013

16 of 65

Coffee

There are folks who say they can’t sleep when they drink coffee.  I am just the opposite – I can’t drink coffee when I sleep.

Actually, I don’t drink coffee any time.  My wife thinks that is very strange and suggested that I write this to explain my idiosyncrasy.  The question, then, is why don’t I like coffee. Continue reading “DAY 16 – COFFEE”

YEAR OF THE SNAKE – 2013

February 9, 2013

YEAR OF THE SNAKE – 2013

On the Chinese calendar, the Year of the Water Snake begins with the New Moon on February 10, 2013.  Therefore, it is time to make my annual forecasts for the coming year.  I do not claim to have any extraordinary psychic abilities or great expertise in Chinese astrology.  Why should these forecasts matter then, you may ask.

I am reminded of the story of a famous scientist who hung a good luck horseshoe over the door of his office.  One of his colleagues remarked, “You don’t really believe that superstition, do you?”  The scientist replied, “Of course not; but it works whether you believe in it or not.”  So, if the Chinese are correct in the belief that there are various cycles, such as 12 years and 60 years, some reasonable predictions for the coming year may be made by looking at what occurred in previous Snake years.

How well does this approach work?  Well, looking back to last year, 2012’s forecast for the Year of the Dragon correctly predicted that the world would not end (a subject which will be revisited below); that my daughter, Suzanne’s, wedding would be celebrated in July (it was a lovely ceremony); that Barack Obama would be re-elected president; that we would see violent political discord (like the Arab Spring); that unemployment would fall and the stock market would rise and Kate Middleton’s pregnancy.  The predicted advances in solar energy, energy storage and stem cell therapy may have occurred, but they were not big news.  It was predicted that the Middle East would become more stable, but that does not seem to have occurred; and there were no major volcanoes, as it was suggested there might be (but that is a good possibility for this year).

There are so-called experts in astrology who will say that Snake years are not necessarily bad years.  Among the good things that can be expected are advances in the arts, an important year for fashion, a positive year for music and theater.  It is also a good year for love and romance, but that can lead to some scandal(s) involving famous people.

While all of that is probably true, it is important to be vigilant during these years and prepared for anything that might happen.  Like the proverbial “snake in the grass,” these years may seem rather calm until there is a sudden and vicious strike. To illustrate this, let us look at some of the “strikes” made in other Snake years during the 20th and 21st Centuries:

1917:  German U-Boats began sinking increasing number of American ships, drawing the U. S. into World War I.

1929:  The stock market crashed in October, triggering the Great Depression.

1941:  The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor brought the United States into World War II.

1953:  The secret test of a hydrogen bomb by the Soviet Union, followed by President Eisenhower’s directive that the U. S. nuclear arsenal must be maintained and expanded, marking the beginning of the Cold War.

1965:  The first American combat troops were deployed in Vietnam.  This was not as sudden as many of the other listed events, but it did mark a major change in policy and in the way the American people viewed the situation in Vietnam.

1989:  The major “snake bites” occurred in other countries, with the killing of protestors in Tiananmen Square in Beijing and the first suicide bombing by terrorists in Israel. In the United States, we had to deal with the Exxon Valdez oil spill and the invasion of Panama to oust Manuel Noriega.

2001:  Terrorists hijacked planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.  The resulting “War on Terror” and military excursions into Iraq and Afghanistan are still affecting us.

The Year of the Snake has also brought the end of hostilities, such as the treaty ending the Russo-Japanese War in 1905 and the official end of the Korean War in 1953.  I am hoping that this coming year will not bring sudden military strikes, but will be another year in which conflicts end, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Nevertheless, it is important to be prepared for some major tragedy occurring without warning.  Since we do not know which snake will strike, it is very difficult to try to guess what that tragedy might be.

In 2012, we saw the agitation of the “Arab Spring” followed by civil wars in several countries.  These events are likely to increase during the coming year.  Past Snake years have seen the beginning of the Russian Revolution in 1917, the resumption of the Chinese Civil War in 1941 and the events in China and Panama in 1989.  Unfortunately, it looks like there will be more bloodshed over the next several months.

Major advances in science and technology have occurred during Snake Years.  Examples include:

1905:  An automobile was first driven at a speed of over 100 mile per hour and Einstein’s famous equation e = mc2.

1929:  First regularly scheduled TV broadcasts; first Technicolor movie; first manned rocket plane flight.

1941:  Plutonium isolated; first commercial TV licenses issued; first commercial FM radio station; first working, programmable, fully automatic computer.

1953:  Watson and Crick discovered structure of DNA; polio vaccine; first 3-D film.

1977:  First personal computers marketed; first flight of the Space Shuttle; first nodes of the ARPAnet were connected, which was the beginning of the internet; Apple Computer was formed.

2001:  Apple began marketing iPods and iTunes and the first draft of the human genome project was published.

Most of these developments were examples of applied science with commercial implications rather than pure research; and many involved Apple Computer.  We can probably expect more high tech gadgets in 2013, and probably some sort of major announcement from Apple.

With advances such as these, Snake years appear to be good for business and finance, but they are subject to sudden reversals stemming from the major events that seem to happen without much warning during these years.  The two most serious depressions in American history began in Snake years, following the Panic of 1893 and the events of October 1929.  There is an old saying on Wall Street that investors should “sell in May and go away.”  This could be a good year to follow that advice – although I think I may consider selling by April.  We will probably see the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise to 14,500 or above, but it could come crashing back down – probably temporarily – at any time.

Looking back to 2012, much was written about the end of one cycle in the ancient Mayan calendar and how that might signal the beginning of a new age of spirituality.  If that is so, we might expect to see at least the start of that trend during the coming year.  That may very well occur because past Snake years have been times of important advancements in the fields of religion and spirituality, including:

1917:  The Blessed Virgin Mary appeared to three children in Fatima, Portugal.  Parenthetically, I might add that Mary’s first appearance at Lourdes, France in 1858 occurred only two weeks after the end of a Snake year.

1929:  Vatican City became a sovereign, independent state.

1941:  While there were certain events that could be mentioned (such as Nazi Germany banning all Catholic publications), the main emphasis was on World War II and the belief that one side was morally and spiritually superior to the other.

1953:  Pope Pius XII, who had been the Pope through all of World War II, and had been subject to criticism for his failure to condemn the Nazis and the Holocaust, proclaimed that the following year would be a Marian Year to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the dogma of the Immaculate Conception of the Virgin Mary.

1965:  The Second Vatican Council (Vatican II) was completed, bringing about major changes in the Catholic liturgy and changes in the way the Catholic Church saw its place in the modern world.

1977:  The first woman was formally ordained as an Episcopal priest.

1989:  The Episcopal Church appointed it first female bishop.

Most of the changes in this list show an established religion making changes to adjust to life in a changing world.  Others involve the Virgin Mary.  It seems, then, that we should see one or more of the major religions moving toward modernization in the coming months.  Also, it should not be surprising for there to be reports of appearances of Mary during this year.

In order to keep this post from becoming too long, let me just list a few other events that may occur during this Year of the Water Snake without discussing how they relate to past Snake years:

–          Flooding and serious hurricanes and tornadoes are, unfortunately, likely to occur.

–          Health problems for one or both of the former Presidents Bush, one of whom may not survive the year.

–          Similar health problems for, and the possible passing of, a member of the British Royal Family.

–          Increased autonomy for the various regions of China, with major economic advances for Mongolia.

–          Volatility in precious metal prices (you might want to familiarize yourself with the events of 1893, which was also a Year of the Water Snake, and the effect of the Sherman Silver Purchase Act – which particularly affected Colorado – and its part in the Panic of 1893).

–          Another large earthquake in Japan and a large earthquake, and perhaps a volcanic eruption in Central America or the Caribbean.

–          Major technology companies such as Google and Facebook could be subject to cyber-terrorism.

–          Solar flares will be given more attention than in the past.

–          Watered down gun control legislation will be enacted, but it will not end the trend of mass shootings.

–          The U.S. unemployment rate should dip below 7%.

–          The world will definitely not end this year.  I am so confident of this that I promise to never make any more predictions if I am wrong this time.

In summary, this should seem a fairly calm year for much of the time, at least on the surface, with attention focused on arts and media.  However, a tragedy or catastrophe could strike at any time with little or no warning.  It is a time to be cautious and to avoid speculation and gambling.

As mentioned last year, it is a tradition in some parts of China to cook a whole fish the day before the New Year and eat most, but not all, of the fish on New Year’s Eve.  Part of the fish must be saved to eat the next day, symbolizing that if we are not overly exuberant, the resources for a good life are with us even as times change.  This would be a good year to practice that tradition – and if you are a vegetarian, it doesn’t need to be a fish, just something good that can be feasted upon with part saved.  I hope that your luck and your opportunities, as well as your resources this year are exactly what you want and need.

Gung hay fat choy (Happy New Year)!

 

Book Review: WOODY GUTHRIE, AMERICAN RADICAL

Woody Guthrie, American Radical

Although this site is called Ralston Creek Review, we have not yet published any formal reviews.  That is about to change, with a review of a book by Will Kaufman, a professor of American literature and American culture at the University of Central Lancashire in England.  The book. published by the University of Illinois Press in 2011, is entitled Woody Guthrie, American Radical.

Woody Guthrie is often seen as the quintessential American folksinger:  a simple man hitchhiking and riding the rails, singing the songs of the common man to the workers who make this country great.  We remember his songs like “Roll On Columbia,” “Pretty Boy Floyd,” “Ballad of Tom Joad” and of course “This Land is Your Land.”  We see is influence in the music of Bob Dylan; Phil Ochs; Peter, Paul and Mary; Bruce Springsteen, U-2 and countless other artists.  However, most of us know very little about the person he really was.  Much of the legend that Guthrie’s life has become is derived from his book, Bound for Glory – which he himself called an “autobiographical novel.”  It was based on his life, but was selective to the extent that it became part fiction.

John Greenway, one of my former teachers at the University of Colorado, published a book called American Folksongs of Protest back in 1970.  In the final chapter of that book, Mr. Greenway devotes some 30 pages to Woody Guthrie’s life and songs and manages to convey what may be a more accurate, though acerbic, view of Guthrie’s life than what Woody himself wanted us to believe.

Will Kaufman’s book, Woody Guthrie, American Radical, is based almost entirely on Guthrie’s own writings, including many that have never been published.  He was given the opportunity to review the extensive collection of the Woody Guthrie Foundation as well as those of several families with personal collections of correspondence with and about Guthrie.

The result is not a biography, but a scholarly and eye-opening look at Woody Guthrie as an entertainer whose art was influenced by his leftist political views.  Woody does not seem to have ever been a member of he Communist Party, but he did write a regular column for the Party’s Daily Worker publication.  He seems to have been a pacifist at heart but his strongly anti-Fascist beliefs made him a strong advocate for the entry of the United States into World War II to fight against the evil he saw represented in Adolph Hitler.

These and other little known facts are covered in great detail in this book.  There are three that I would like to mention briefly in this review.  The first is Guthrie’s tenure as part of the Almanac Singers, which was a group consisting originally of Woody, Pete Seeger, Millard Lampell and Lee Hays.  The Almanacs began singing informally in 1940 or 1941 and continued to make music with various members (including, from time to time Burl Ives, Josh White, Sis Cunningham, Bess Lomax Hawes, Brownie McGhee, Sonny Terry and several others).  They sang topical songs with folk-based melodies.  Those songs were performed at union gatherings and hootenannies for the workers and the common people.  Their first album of politically charged songs was widely criticized for its socialist/Communist bias, even drawing the ire of Eleanor Roosevelt.  By the time their third album was released and the group was singing strongly anti-Fascist songs such as “Reuben James” and “Dear Mr. President,” Mrs. Roosevelt remarked to folklorist Alan Lomax that she had listened to the songs and “thought that they were swell.”  She was even playing the record for the staff of the Office of Civilian Defense.

 The next relates to the concerts that have come to be known as the “Peekskill Riots.”  In the summer of 1949, actor/singer Paul Robeson had become increasingly outspoken about civil rights and critical of the Ku Klux Klan, leading to his compelled appearance before the House Un-American Activities Committee.  On August 27, 1949, Robeson was scheduled to perform a concert to benefit the Civil Rights Congress at Peekskill, New York.  Shortly before the concert was to begin a local mob, influenced by the Klan, attacked those in attendance with rocks and baseball bats and hanged Paul Robeson in effigy.  The concert was cancelled and re-scheduled for September 4, 1949.  Woody Guthrie, Pete Seeger and other socially-conscious entertainers were added to the bill for this second concert.  Although there were no incidents during the performances, afterwards the local police directed the exiting traffic into an ambush.  For several miles, mobs threw rocks and bottles at the departing vehicles, breaking windshields, overturning cars and beating concertgoers.  The car in which Guthrie, Seeger, Seeger’s infant child and several others were riding was attacked and the window broken.  Woody placed a shirt over the widow to keep the glass from shattering.  Lee Hays later remembered, “Wouldn’t you know it, Woody pinned up a red shirt.”

Finally, the anecdote that seems to have generated the most interest concerns Woody’s inspiration for “This Land Is Your Land.”  In 1940, Irving Berlin’s “God Bless America” was ubiquitous, playing on every radio and jukebox across the country.  Woody hated the song, asking, “What ‘America’ had Kate Smith been singing of?  Not the ‘big high wall’ and the painted sign saying ‘Private Property’; not the bread line ‘in the shadow of the steeple,’ by ‘the Relief Office’ where Guthrie’s ‘people…stood hungry.’  These are the first critical images in the song Guthrie initially titled ‘God Blessed America.'”  Still, Woody Guthrie loved America and its people – his people – and the completed song shows that love.  Like Bruce Springsteen’s “Born in the USA,” written over four decades later, what was originally meant as a strong critique of the country has been adopted as a patriotic anthem.

Woody Guthrie embraced the politics of the left and of unionism and he was radical in the ways he used his music – which he adapted from America’s folk music – to present his political views.  These facts are superbly presented in Will Kaufman’s book.  Woody was not a politician, however, so this book should not be seen as a definitve biography of this complex man.  As John Greenway states, “Not all of Guthrie’s compositions are songs of overt protest.  Of an estimated one thousand songs in his manuscript collection [now about 3000 have been collected] I found only about 140 whose basic theme is one of protest; the remainder fell into conventional folksong categories – love, humor, crime … and even nursery songs.”  Woody Guthrie, American Radical presents a very detailed look at what is only one facet of the man’s work.  It is well researched, well written, and certainly worth reading for anyone interested in American culture from the Dust Bowl years to the 1950s or early 1960s, or in the life and times of the radical who may truly be called “America’s Folksinger” (which was the name of his 2002 biography for elementary school students written by Karen Mueller Coombs).

Year of the Dragon – 2012

YEAR OF THE DRAGON – 2012

January 23, 2012 is the first day of the Year of the Dragon on the Chinese calendar, so it is time for my annual look at the year to come based on historical trends and Chinese astrology.  I am not by any stretch of the imagination an expert on Chinese astrology, so this discussion is based on my research rather than my personal expertise.  The Year of the Water Dragon will continue until February 9, 2013.  It is thus apparent that the End of the World is not going to come in 2012.

The Chinese calendar is based on simple 12-year cycles, as well as larger cycles.  The last Year of the Dragon was 12 years ago in 2000.  At that time there was a great deal of concern about the New Millennium and Y2K, with some predicting the End of the World back then.  You may have noticed that it did not end.

In the West, our mythology of the Dragon presents a fierce and dangerous beast which must be slayed by knightly heroes.  The Chinese, though, see the Dragon as a benevolent creature – a symbol of power and superiority and a symbol of the ruler.  The time of the Dragon is excellent for new beginnings, so we may expect a baby boom in China where many couples are planning for their children to be born during this year.  Marriages that occur during a Dragon year are said to be “doubly blessed.”  This is a very good thing because my daughter, Suzanne, is going to be married in July.

Another important cycle for the Chinese is the 60-year cycle.  Much of Chinese philosophy is built around a belief in Five Elements  – Wood, Fire, Earth, Metal and Water.  Each year is said to have the attributes not only of the familiar animal, but also of one of these Elements, giving 60 different combinations (5×12=60).  2012 is the Year of the Water Dragon.

The Water Dragon is said to have a calm, visionary intelligence with an excellent balance between creativity and logic.  It should be expected that the coming year will be a time for thoughtful and diplomatic progress on social and environmental issues.  It may be expected that advances will be made on clean energy, energy conservation and the slowing of global warming.  Since Water is the active element during the year, we could also see advances in providing clean drinking water to poverty stricken areas and to positive steps to improve the health of the world’s oceans and waterways.

This year also marks the end of a cycle of general bad luck that began back in 1996 and many will feel their luck improving.  Dragon years are noted for bringing good luck to business, and especially to new ventures.  These years are often times of exuberance which can lead to overspending.  It is therefore important for individuals, businesses and governments to consciously set aside money for savings.  Dragons are traditionally associated with Spring, which could mean that the best opportunities will arise early in the year.  Watch for those and be ready to act upon them.  Remember, too that the Dragon’s exuberance can also lead the unwary to spectacular failures.

As mentioned above, the major trend in a Water Dragon year should be one of calm and diplomatic progress on social and environmental issues; but that is true only to a point.  The exuberance that can lead to overspending may also bring about violent discord and even revolution.  Don’t be surprised if the Occupy movement, for example, becomes more visible with rallies, demonstrations and perhaps even its own counter-political convention.

Clearly, a major focus in the coming year will be the presidential election here in the United States.  Even though the Year of the Dragon is auspicious for new beginnings, it is also a time favorable to rulers.  Despite the general discontent with the political system and with President Obama himself, history indicates that Mr. Obama has a very good chance of being re-elected.

Because of the relationship between the 4-year presidential election cycle and the 12-year Chinese calendar, a presidential election is held during each Year of the Dragon.  Since the United States was founded, there have been 18 elections held during a Year of the Dragon.  An incumbent president was running for re-election in seven of those; and the incumbent won all but one or two of those times.  (Andrew Jackson in 1832, a Water Dragon year; Theodore Roosevelt in 1904; Woodrow Wilson in 1916; Franklin Roosevelt in 1940; and Lyndon Johnson in 1964).  The incumbent president lost in 1976 when Gerald Ford was defeated by Jimmy Carter.

The other election in which an incumbent was running was 1892 – another Water Dragon year – and that was a very strange election.  In the previous election, the incumbent, Grover Cleveland, had received more of the popular vote than his opponent, Benjamin Harrison.  However, Harrison won all of the large Northern states and so was chosen president through the electoral college.  Cleveland and Harrison were the major candidates again in 1892, joined by two surprisingly strong third party candidates, James B. Weaver of the Populist Party and John Bidwell of the Prohibition Party.  Between them, those two minor candidates received over 10% of the votes cast.  The Populist Party actually carried four states, including Colorado.  Once again, Grover Cleveland received the most votes; and this time he also had the most electoral votes.  The winner, while not the incumbent, was the candidate who had actually received the most votes in the previous election.

Although incumbents have done well in American presidential elections, there have been major changes in governments during Dragon years.  For example, it 1952 – the last Water Dragon year – Elizabeth II became Queen of England and the Dragon year 1976 saw the death of Mao Tse-Tung in China.  Elizabeth’s reign has seen the transformation of the British Empire to the Commonwealth of Nations.  It is probable that the role of royalty in British society will see some major changes on her passing.  Nothing indicates that her passing is particularly likely this year, but there is a good chance that she could become a great-grandmother.  Chairman Mao’s death led to a complete change in the very fabric of Chinese society.

Another area of focus will be the economy.  During the past 60 years, the unemployment rate has dropped during each Year of the Dragon.  During the last Water Dragon year, 1952, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.0%, which is the second lowest on record (the following year, 1953, the rate fell to 2.9%).  The stock market has seen modest increases during most Dragon years.  The glaring exception was in 2000 when the “dot-com bubble” burst and the market lost nearly 50% of its value between September and the end of the year.  More typical were the previous two Dragon years, 1976 and 1988, when the market showed good recovery following crashes in the previous years.  The indication, then, is that the employment situation should improve this year and the stock market should rise.  The rise in the stock market may be a bit erratic with large swings both up and down.

The housing market has also improved during each Dragon year since 1952.  That would indicate that the worst of the housing crisis should now be over and markets should begin to improve – perhaps slowly – this year.

Indications are that prices for precious metals should increase this year, as well.

In no particular order, here are some other things that you may occur during the Year of the Dragon:

-Like his Western cousin, the regal Chinese Dragon is a fire-breather, so we could see more than our share of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes;

-The Middle East should be more stable than it has been in recent years;

-The worldwide economy remains shaky, but the Chinese economy, particularly that of Southern China, should rebound;

-Also look for economic improvement for Canada and Russia;

-Trouble spots include Tibet, Spain and Portugal;

-Expect major advances in solar energy and in batteries or other devices for energy storage;

-Great strides are possible in stem cell research and the use of stem cell therapy to treat various diseases.

 

 Overall, then, a year that is lucker than the past few have been.  This is a time of optimism and good progress, provided that enthusiasm is kept in check and actions are taken with an eye on the future.  Opportunities will certainly arise, but they may not be everything they seem at first glance. 

It is a tradition in some parts of China to cook a whole fish the day before the New Year and eat most, but not all, of the fish on New Year’s Eve.  Part of the fish must be saved to eat the next day, symbolizing that if we are not overly exuberant, the resources for a good life are with us even as times change.  This would be a good year to practice that tradition – and if you are a vegetarian, it doesn’t need to be a fish, just something good that can be feasted upon with part saved.  I hope that your luck and your opportunities, as well as your resources this year are exactly what you want and need.

Gung hay fat choy (Happy New Year)!

Church Bulletin Humor

Church Bulletin Humor

About 20 years ago, a gentleman from Arizona, John Cojanis, came to our church for a healing mission.  He and his wife seemed dedicated and sincere and they seemed to help some of those attending, so my wife and I have made financial contributions to his ministry from time to time.  Last week we received a newsletter from his “organization” – which I think is just his family.  It included some humorous quotes from church bulletins across the country.  I would like to share a few of those, plus a few others I have run across:

  • “Ladies, don’t forget the rummage sale.  It’s a chance to get rid of those things not worth keeping around the house.  Bring your husbands.”
  • “The sermon this morning:  Jesus Walks on Water.  The sermon tonight: Searching for Jesus.”
  • “Irv Benson & Ann Carter were married October 24th in the church.  So ends a friendship that began in their school days.”
  • “The low self esteem support group will meet Tuesday at 7.  Please use the back door.”
  • “Weight Watchers will meet at 7 PM at the First Presbyterian Church.  Please use the double doors at the side entrance.”
  • “The ladies of the church have cast off clothing of every kind and they may be seen in the church basement on Friday.”
  • “For those of you who have children and don’t know it, we have a nursery downstairs.”
  • “The choir will meet at the Larsen house for fun and sinning.”
  • “Next Sunday Mrs. Vinson will be soloist for the morning service.  The pastor will then speak on ‘It’s a Terrible Experience.'”
  • “Remember in prayer the many who are sick of our church and community.”
  • “Don’t let worry kill you – let the church help.”
  • “The pastor is on vacation.  Massages can be given to the church secretary.”
  • “Proceeds from the bake sale will be used to cripple children.”
  • “The Fasting and Prayer Conference includes meals.”

I could go on . . . .