February 4-5, 2019 will be the first day of the Year of the Earth Pig (or Boar) on the Chinese and other Oriental calendars. This is the 12^th and final year of the Chinese zodiac cycle, so it is a time for culmination of matters that have manifested over the previous 11 years. As you probably know, each year is symbolized by one of twelve animals and each of those animal years cycles through affinities to the five elements – fire, earth, metal, water and wood. This will be the Year of the Earth Pig, which occurs every 60 years.

I am once again posting predictions for what may occur in the world during the upcoming year. Rather than claiming to be any more (or less) psychic than you are, I have assumed that the traditional cycles are valid, and have based the predictions on what has occurred in previous Pig years. You may review the history or jump directly to the predictions at the end of this post, after clicking the “continue reading” button.

The last Year of the Earth Pig, and the only one during the 20^th Century, was 1959. The one before that was 1899. We will look briefly at those years and at the Pig years since 1959. However, let us begin by looking at 1923, which was a very intriguing Year of the Pig.  

Warren G. Harding, who was elected in 1920, had engaged in more than one extramarital affair; and he hushed up those indiscretions during the campaign, partially by paying a significant amount of money to one of his mistresses, and sending her and her husband on an all-expense paid trip to China. Although there were some outstanding members in Harding’s cabinet, he also appointed several high ranking officials who used their positions to amass personal fortunes at the expense of the taxpayers. The most notorious of the scandals is known as “Teapot Dome,” but there were others. . . . Does any of this sound familiar? . . . .In the summer of 1923, Harding suffered a heart attack while on a western speaking tour, and he died a few days later. In may be important, then, for President Trump, to watch his health during the coming year, or suffer the consequences.

Next, we consider the last two Earth Pig years:

1899: A major event during this Year of the Earth Pig was the beginning of the Boxer Revolution in China. That conflict caused China to lose Manchuria and other territories and permitted Japan to become the major power in the region; though it also convinced Western nations not to try to colonize China. The water element was important during the year as there were droughts and heat waves in several locations, along with a major blizzard in the United States, the deadliest cyclone ever to hit Australia, and more that 500 miners killed when heavy rains caused the collapse of a copper mine in Japan.

1959: Many people think of the end of the 1950s as a simple time, as represented by “Father Knows Best,” “The Danny Thomas Show” and “The Real McCoys,” all of which were popular television shows during the year. Internationally, though, it was more complicated. Fidel Castro became prime minister of Cuba and ordered the execution of hundreds of officials of the former government; India and China went to war over disputed territory; the Dalai Lama fled to India as the Chinese invaded Tibet. Even the map of the world was changing as Singapore, Cyprus and Cameroon became independent nations.

Vietnam was still split between North and South, but communist leader Ho Chi Minh announced the beginning of a “people’s war: (that would continue for more than 15 years) to unite the country. This was in the middle of the “Cold War” – symbolized by the “kitchen debate” between Richard Nixon and Nikita Krushchev – so the United States responded by sending more and more troops to support the South Vietnamese government.

Here in 2019, most people would think that the issue of women’s suffrage had been resolved by the last half of the 20^th Century, but that is not the case. Nineteen fifty-nine was the first year that women were allowed to vote in Nepal; but in a Swiss referendum, the voters denied women the right to vote by a 2-1 margin.

There were extreme weather conditions in 1959. Barely a week after the start of the Year of the Pig, a storm dumped more than 189 inches (!) of snow in the Mt. Shasta area of California. Then through the summer and early fall, a severe drought was experienced throughout parts of Russia, most of Europe and the United Kingdom. That year, an international treaty was signed making Antarctica a scientific zone in which there could be no military activity. During the year, there were major earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park, Russia, Taiwan and New Zealand.

Looking at the American stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (“DJIA”) began the year at about 632, then rose to around 680 in July and again in December – an increase of 7.5%.

Now, let us briefly review the four Pig years since 1959: 

1971: Although this was a year before the Watergate scandal, it was a time when President Richard Nixon and his top aides were in the middle of the “White House Horrors” and Nixon personally ordered a burglary of the Brookings Institution and other crimes. It was also a year in which two Supreme Court justices retired, allowing Nixon to appoint Lewis Powell and William Rehnquist to replace them. The Vietnam War was expanded when the U.S. invaded Laos to try to block the Ho Chi Minh Trail.

Internationally, India and China were again in the news. Pakistan had launched a brutal attack against East Pakistan (Bangladesh) and India, in turn, declared war on Pakistan. The U.S. had invoked a trade embargo against China that ended in 1971, and Mainland China was admitted to the United Nations as Taiwan was expelled..This was also a year for dictators on the international stage as Idi Amin took power in Uganda and Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier assumed power in Haiti upon the death of his father, Francois “Papa Doc” Duvalier. It was also the year in which the British House of Commons voted to join the European Economic Community, and we still need to see how that plays out.

Swiss women were finally given the right to vote in state, but not national, elections.

The major financial event of the year was that the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, which gave the government power to control interest rates and the amount of money in the economy, as needed. In the stock market, the DJIA began the year at about 885 and ended at about 890, though it reached a high of 950 in April – an increase of more than 7%.

1983: The Middle East was in the spotlight in 1983, and not in a good way. Israel and Syria agreed to withdraw from Lebanon, though Lebanon remained a very dangerous place as the Islamic Jihad attacked the U.S. Embassy with a car bomb and a U.S. Marine barracks with a truck bomb, leaving some 250 dead. Iran invaded Iraq.

There was violence in other parts of the world. Terrorists, directed by “Carlos the Jackal,” bombed two French train stations. Thousands of Tamils were killed by rampaging gangs in Sri. Lanka. The Soviet Union shot down a commercial Korean Air flight that had inadvertently entered Soviet air space. There was a coup on the Caribbean island of Granada that resulted in American Marines invading the island, ostensibly to protect American medical students.

Margaret Thatcher won a landslide victory in British elections.

A severe drought in eastern Australia ended in 1971, however the rest of the world was not so lucky. The U.S. experienced drought conditions and severe heat throughout the Midwest and Great Plains regions, and widespread famine in Ethiopia led to more than 400,000 deaths.

The DJIA began the year at about 1190 and finished around 1258. The highs for the year were about 1287 in April and November – an increase of 8%. As noted above, the gold standard for currency ended and the price of gold became set by the market in 1971, so this was the first Pig year in which that price was meaningful. In 1983, gold began the year at a price of about $450/ounce, rose to $511/ounce, and then dropped quickly to less than $380/ounce.

1995: In 2019, we hear that the president may use emergency powers to build a wall along the Mexican border; in 1995, President Clinton did invoke emergency powers to extend loans to prevent the financial collapse of Mexico. The primary focus, though, was on Eastern Europe. There was finally a peace agreement in Bosnia, forced by NATO airstrikes, but not until Bosnian Serbs had rounded up and killed more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys. Bosnian officials were charged with genocide.

This was a bad year for terrorism. Religious extremists released sarin gas on trains in Tokyo, injuring more than 5,500 people, 12 of whom died. In the United States, Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols set off a bomb at the federal building in Oklahoma City, that killed 168 people. Israeli prime minister Yitzkah Rabin was assassinated by a religious rightist.

On a more positive note, France discontinued all nuclear testing and the international Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty was extended indefinitely and without condition. In Canada, Quebec separatists lost a referendum election for a mandate to negotiate for independence.

The weather was severe once again in 1995, and there were several natural disasters. An unprecedented heat wave in the United States caused the deaths of 739 people in Chicago over t five day period. Heat was also a problem in the UK. Earthquakes caused the deaths of more than 4,000 in Japan and more than 2,000 on Sakhalin Island in the Soviet Union. The Atlantic hurricane season was especially active.

Turning to the stock market, the DJIA began around 4494 and ended at about 5117, with a high of 5216 in December – that high being an increase of 16%. During 1995, the highest price for gold was about $397/ounce and the low about $372/ounce, with barely any change throughout the year.

And, by the way, Americans seemed entranced by the trial of O. J. Simpson for the murder of his ex-wife and her companion. He was acquitted.

2007: The focus for 2007 was back to the Middle East. Thousands of American troops were in Iraq, regularly fighting insurgents and suffering casualties from roadside bombs. Mozul was a particularly active area where many hundreds were killed in bombings. There was fighting between Fatah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In Syria, Bashar al-Assad won the election for president, with no opposition.

Similarly, General Musharraf won a landslide victory in Pakistani elections, and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. Hundreds were killed in political violence in Kenya following elections in that country.

Once again, the weather was also a prime focus. The U.S. and Canada experienced major blizzards in February and December. In between, there were deadly heat waves in the U.S., in southern Europe and the Balkans, as well as in South Asia, Russia, Japan and China. A cyclone killed more than 3,000 people in Bangladesh, and Hurricane Dean devastated parts of Mexico and the Caribbean. Yemen was in the midst of a drought, while in China more than 180 workers died when a mine collapsed due to heavy rains.

The stock markets in the United States and China experienced a large run-up that turned around to decline precipitously in 2008. For 2007, the DJIA began the year at 13,178, rose to 14,164 in November and then fell to approximately where it started by the end of the year. At its highest point, the DJIA had risen 7.5% for the year. Gold began the year at a price of about $635/ounce and rose steadily to end at nearly $900/ounce.

With that background, we will now make some predictions for the coming year of the Earth Pig:

Predictions: The pig is an interesting animal. It is very intelligent, but seems lazy and more apt to use its intelligence for pleasure than for making permanent improvements to its world. Pig years can be a time of deceit and scandal as those who are selfish and cunning readily take advantage of their more naive neighbors. This is the end of a 12-year cycle and will see the culmination of many plans and processes that have been underway for some time.

The simplest area in which to begin predicting is financial matters because those are most easily quantifiable. The world economy should be good during the coming year for the privileged classes and nations. The disparity between rich and poor will become more pronounced, though, and the standard of living for all but the richest people will be in decline. Drought and other natural disasters could bring severe suffering to developing countries. The so-called “trade war” between the United States and China will end, with neither side “winning,” though the negative effects will be felt more in the U.S. than in China. World stock markets should be quite volatile with a positive bias. The best times for American stocks should be during mid-Spring, mid-Summer and late Fall. The DJIA may be expected to reach a high of somewhere around 26,500, but it might not remain at that level for long. Precious metals prices should be stable throughout the year. The UK and European economies will be affected by continuing “Brexit” issues, which will ultimately be resolved favorably.

With respect to the weather, extreme changes can be expected during this Year of the Pig. North America may expect several major blizzards alongside record breaking heat waves during the summer. Parts of South America, Africa and the Middle East may expect serious drought conditions. It could be a bad year for Atlantic hurricanes and cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, caused in large part by global warming resulting from human activities. There will probably be several large earthquakes, especially along the western Pacific Rim. It is also a year in which much of the world will recognize the dangers of climate change and work to find ways to abate that change.

Politics and world events are the most difficult areas to predict, in large part because during the past few years these have been areas of secrecy and deliberate deception. That makes it very hard to know even what the cycles are that are reaching culmination. Certainly, there will be scandals and outrage as some of these are brought to light, but others will remain unknown to most of the world. Washington, D.C. will be a focal point for scandals, and President Donald Trump will be right in the middle of them. However, he will most likely be able to cast the blame on his subordinates and continue to claim that he was clueless. This should be a better year for Trump than the past two have been, giving him a bit of relief even with an almost hopelessly divided government – at least until mid-summer, with difficulties to face later in the year. Still, Mr. Trump’s health is in peril. He is overweight, out of shape and under a great deal of stress, which is the perfect setup for a stroke or a heart attack. It is even conceivable that he may be negotiating with Robert Mueller to experience a “fake stroke” to let him resign the presidency without having to answer for his wrongdoings. Either way, expect news about Trump’s health, perhaps with concerns about his mental competence.

Women should take a more prominent role in international affairs this year, including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Women will be leading the governments in many countries and several will begin activities to seek an American presidential nomination in 2020. It should also be a positive year for British Prime Minister Theresa May, who should be able to keep her position and work out some resolution to the “Brexit” problems. Recall that in the Pig year 1971 Britain voted to join the European Economic Community and in 1983 Margaret Thatcher won a landslide election victory. It would be just as appropriate this year for the British to end that experiment as it would be for them to hold a new referendum and vote to remain in the EU. My guess is that an arrangement will be reached giving Britain some limited form of “membership,” with certain privileges and obligations, while cutting some of the more formal ties. When that is finalized, Ms. May could choose to retire while she is perceived in a positive light. One woman who will not see much benefit is Hillary Clinton, who should keep as low a profile as possible.

The Middle East will continue to be an area of conflicts and striving for power. ISIS may play a larger role in the coming year, but more serious warfare will be seen only if Israel or Iran feel the need to extend their territory or influence, or if Israel feels the need to respond to particularly deadly terrorist attacks. Drought and famine will create crises in Africa. South and Southeast Asia will be relatively stable, with China exerting a position of leadership. India will also become an important area as the world’s second most populous country begins to assert its international power.

There are many websites that discuss how this Year of the Pig will affect those born under the various animal signs, so we will not consider that here. The purpose of this page has been to give the reader some perspective from which to try to understand the upcoming events in our world. After all, as we have been told, one who does not know history is doomed to repeat it. The information could be useful, for instance, to help stock investors decide when to take profits and sell some investments, or the possibility of a humanitarian crisis in Africa might be considered in planning charitable contributions, or you might want to think twice before planning a Caribbean vacation during hurricane season.

Back in 2012, when everyone was afraid the world was going to end, I boldly predicted that it would not. I have repeated that prediction every year since, and will end with a new prediction that the world will not end during this year of the Earth Pig, either. If I am wrong, I promise to stop writing these annual essays.

Gong xi fa cai!