YEAR OF THE DRAGON 2024 – PART 2

The predictions for this Year of the Dragon are fairly lengthy, so we will post them in two parts. Part 1 looks at the economy and the presidential election in the United States. This Part 2 considers other matters that may be important in the coming year.

Before we begin this discussion, here is an executive summary of the predictions from both Parts 1and 2:

PREDICTIONS

  1. The United States will see lower inflation and lower unemployment.

  1. Stocks will rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average moving well above 40,000.

  1. There will be no recession.

  1. Joe Biden and Donald Trump may not be the candidates for president in the November election.

  1. The candidate nominated by the Democrats, whether Joe Biden or someone else, will most likely win the presidential election. However, Grover Cleveland’s election to a non-consecutive term in a previous Dragon year shows that Mr. Trump may have a chance for an upset.

  1. There is an increased danger of flooding.

  1. Advances will be made that relate to transportation, but there will be travel disasters, such as airplane crashes and bus or shipping accidents.

  1. Like every year in the United States, there will be mass shootings, some of which may occur at schools.

  1. Progress will be made with respect to civil rights and relations between races. The progress will not be smooth, and we may see racial violence and even genocide.

  1. Expect impressive technological advances, probably in such fields as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and space travel.

  1. The war in Ukraine will drag on, with Russia getting the worst of it

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YEAR OF THE DRAGON 2024 – PART 1

The predictions for this Year of the Dragon are fairly lengthy, so we will post them in two parts. This Part 1 looks at the economy and the presidential election in the United States. Part 2 considers other matters that may be important in the coming year.

The Chinese (Oriental, lunar) New Year begins on February 10, 2024. Based upon a progression of years moving in a 12-year cycle – each year associated with a particular animal – this is the Year of the Dragon. The most recent Dragon year was 12 years ago, in 2012. Each year is also associated with one of the five elements – wood, fire, earth, metal and water – and this is going to be a wood year. It is the Year of the Wood Dragon. Combining those two cycles, one sees that the Year of the Wood Dragon repeats every 60 years (12 x 5). The most recent Year of the Wood Dragon was 1964.

What will this new year bring? That is always an interesting question. In this post we will make some predictions, and then see what really happens. These predictions are not based on astrology or psychic abilities; they are based on analyzing cycles. Assuming that there is a basis for the cycles that are recognized in Chinese astrology, it should be possible to look at what has occurred in similar past years and extrapolate what may be coming in the future. That is the approach we are taking here.

You may wonder how accurate this method of predicting has been. Well, the track record is pretty good. Last year – the Year of the Rabbit – began with almost every economist and pundit predicting a recession and a bad year for the stock market. Looking at the cycles, though, we said that there would not be a recession and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could reach an all-time high. Both of those things came to pass.

We also warned that Turkey and Ecuador were prone to major earthquakes. Well a devastating earthquake, measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale, struck in Turkey only days after the Year of the Rabbit began, causing some 60,000 deaths and incredible damage. Only a month later, a strong earthquake measuring 6.8 was experienced in Ecuador. It caused extensive damage, but only a few deaths.

Other predictions were also accurate, but we should turn now to the predictions for the coming year.  Here is an executive summary of all the predictions:

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YEAR OF THE RABBIT – 2023

The New Moon on January 22, 2023 marks the beginning of the Chinese Year of the Rabbit – or the Vietnamese Year of the Cat.

Why are different animals named for the same year in neighboring countries? We cannot say for certain, but there is a plausible explanation. When the animals of the Chinese zodiac were chosen, there were very few cats in China, so it is not surprising they were not included in the heavenly twelve. Sometime later, the concept of the twelve animal cycle was introduced in Vietnam, and there was an issue in the translation. The Chinese word for the zodiacal rabbit is mǎo tu,” which sounds like the Vietnamese word for cat, which is “meo.” Both of those words sound like the “meow” hear from a cat. It would be an easy mistake to make, and one that is easy to live with.

As you probably know, the Oriental zodiac is comprised of a cycle of twelve years, each of which is represented by a different animal. The rabbit (as we will refer to the year) is the fourth of the cycle. This particular cycle has been a difficult one. It began with the Year of the Rat (2020), which brought the Covid pandemic and contentious presidential politics that ended with an assault on the United States Capitol. Those problems continued and intensified in the Year of the Ox (2021); and remained with us through the Year of the Tiger (2022), which also brought war and problems with inflation and an economic downturn.

The animals symbolize the connection of the Oriental zodiac to the Earth, but our world is also connected to the heavens. This fact is recognized by another cycle that moves through the five elements – earth, fire, wood, water and metal – which combines with the animal signs to make a longer cycle of 60 years.

In last year’s discussion of the Year of the Tiger, we said that beneath any appearance of calm there is a wild animal capable of lashing out at any moment. Indeed, only a very few weeks into the Tiger year, Vladimir Putin launched the Russian invasion into Ukraine that was the defining event of 2022, and which continues today.

Last year we also discussed the possibility of the stock market falling by up to 25%. During the year, the S & P 500 Index did drop by 25%, before rebounding slightly; and the NASDAQ performed even worse.

Can we expect any better with the Rabbit? On the surface, one would think so. The rabbit is seen as a peaceful and clever animal that brings a time of hope and prosperity. The current cycle, though, should keep us wary. Continue reading

YEAR OF THE TIGER – 2022

Back in the 1960s, folk singer Len Chandler wrote a song called “Time of the Tiger” (there is a link to that song at the end of this post). It begins: “This is the time of the tiger/Here alone as he lays with the lamb/The tiger’s just flexing his muscles/The tiger’s just licking his fangs.”

That may be a good metaphor for the upcoming Year of the Tiger, which begins on February 1, 2022. There can be periods that seem calm and placid, but beneath that surface is a wild animal that may lash out violently at any time.

As you probably know, Oriental astrology is based on a cycle of 12 years, each of which is named after an animal. The order of the years in each cycle is: Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit or Cat, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat or Sheep, Monkey, Rooster, Dog and Pig. The coming year is the third in the cycle that began in 2020.

The Year of the Rat (2020) was a troubling one with the onset of the Covid pandemic and a contentious presidential election in the United States. The Year of the Ox (2021) continued those same problems as certain Republicans pushed “the Big Lie” that the election had been marred by fraud and COVID-19 intensified through a number of variants. We could only hope that the Year of the Tiger would be better, but I’m not convinced that it will. I think we are in for another difficult year in a difficult cycle. Continue reading

YEAR OF THE OX – 2021

Welcome to the Year of the Ox which begins on February 12, 2021 and lasts until January 31, 2022. The Ox is the second sign in the Oriental astrological cycle, which goes Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit or Cat, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat or Sheep, Monkey, Rooster, Dog and Pig. Therefore, we will be entering the second year of a cycle that began traumatically during the past Rat year.

In addition to the cycle of the 12 animal signs, the years are said to have affinities to the five elements – fire, earth, metal, water and wood, so that a complete cycle includes each of the animal signs with each element and lasts 60 years. This year will be the Year of the Metal Ox.

In this post we are going to look at what may be expected during the coming lunar year. This is not intended to be a psychic prediction or an astrological interpretation, rather it assumes that the cycles of the Oriental calendar are valid and that what is to come may be extrapolated from what has occurred in past Ox years. That takes a bit of analysis, so if you wish you can jump straight to the predictions by clicking here.

When I discussed the Year of the Rat last year, I pointed out that Rats do not have regular patterns like many of the other animals, so pretty much anything could happen – and it did. The Rat year gave us a global pandemic, raging wildfires, hurricanes, millions of people espousing conspiracy theories, an attack on the American Capitol and much more.

Last year’s discussion focused on the American presidential election and concluded that the stock market may be the best predictor for elections in Rat years. I said that if the S&P 500 average was above 3,470 on election day, President Trump would have a good chance to be reelected; if it was below 3,130, then there would probably be a new president. If the average was between the two, anything could happen. Well, during the year the average rose above 3,470 and it fell below 3,130. On election day it was between the two, so anything could happen – and it did. In the end, Mr. Trump was soundly defeated, but he refused to accept that fact.

Nevertheless, the election made Joe Biden the new president, and it is fitting to elect a new president in the first year of a new cycle of animal signs.

The Ox is often described as a hard working, grounded, loyal trustworthy animal and Ox years are seen as times of recovery and stability; times when justice and freedom are advanced through the processes of law and order. Looking to the past, though, it seems that those generalizations are only partly true.

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WALKING WITH DARCY

As a rule, I am not nostalgic. I think I should try to live in the present and that takes enough energy that the past simply has to be the past. However, here we are in September of 2020 and I truly wish that this was five years ago.

Think how much better nearly everything seemed five years ago: Barack Obama was president. We could go outside without masks, and could even travel to foreign countries if we wished. The sky presented a variety of colors, and hardly any of them were orange. My brother Jim was still alive. Cathy’s brother Steve was still alive. I didn’t have a device in my chest to help my heart beat properly. Darcy and I could walk wherever we wanted go.

All of those things are different today.

Darcy came to us as a rescue puppy of indeterminate breed when she was six weeks old. We played a lot and she loved her walks. We would go out on the local trails every day, and usually more than once a day. Our walks were always interesting, as she was a curious puppy who needed to stop and investigate many things.

A few weeks after Darcy’s second birthday, my grandson Ryder was born. I had retired by then, so when his mother went back to work I would pick him up each day and bring him over to our house where Darcy and I would care for him. Darcy was absolutely wonderful with the baby. She was patient and gentle and loving and protective.
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YEAR OF THE RAT – 2020, PART 2

In the first part of our Year of the Rat discussion, we considered the predictive value of certain political and economic matters over the ten presidential elections that have occurred in Rat Years since 1900. Of course, each of those elections was unique and was not decided by a single variable, so in this second part we will try to add some context by looking briefly at each election. The Rat Years, all of which were election years, are 1900, 1912, 1924, 1936, 1948, 1960, 1972, 1984, 1996 and 2008. Continue reading

YEAR OF THE RAT – 2020, PART 1

The Oriental Lunar Calendar marks the Year of the Metal Rat as beginning with the new moon on January 25, 2020. As you probably know, each year is symbolized by one of twelve animals and each of those animal years cycles through affinities to the five elements – fire, earth, metal, water and wood. We now come to the Year of the Metal Rat, which occurs every 60 years. The Rat is the first animal in the hierarchy, so this is the beginning of a new 12-year cycle.

In this post, we will make some predictions for what may occur in the coming year. These predictions are not based on a belief that I am any more (or less) psychic than you are, or upon the traditional analysis used in Chinese astrology, Rather, we are looking at what has happened in previous Rat years and trying to extrapolate to the present.

A review of previous cycles is a bit difficult due to the nature of Rat years. Rats are seen as intelligent, shrewd, creative, freedom-loving and even downright sneaky. They don’t fall into established patterns like many of the other animals. Continue reading

A SHORT YEAR OF THE DOG RETROSPECTIVE

The Year of the Dog is officially over and we have begun the Year of the Earth Pig.  I asked our dog, Darcy, if she had any words of wisdom as we move on.  First, she said that she would like to think that this is now the Year of Groundhog (earth=ground, pig=hog), so we should pay attention to what goes on in the shadows.  I told her to stop being silly.  Then she suggested that I just go outside and look at the night sky for a few minutes.  We went to the back yard and had the following conversation:

ME:  It’s really clear tonight, and look at all you can see up there since it’s a new moon.  Is that red one Mars?  I had thought Mars would be a little lower in the sky.

DARCY:  And I would have thought that Mars would not be flashing on and off and moving from southeast to northwest.

ME:  Oh.  Yeah.  Look at that other bright star up by Orion.

DARCY:  That’s the Dog Star.

ME:  Sirius?

DARCY:  Oh, yes.  Dogs are very proud of the Dog Star and take it quite seriously – just as we took the Year of the Dog seriously.

ME:  I mean the star, Sirius.

DARCY:  I don’t know how to tell whether a star is joking.  By the way, who’s on first?

ME:  You’re right.  It was that kind of year.

It was a teaching/learning moment.

YEAR OF THE PIG – 2019

I am once again posting predictions for what may occur in the world during the upcoming year. Rather than claiming to be any more (or less) psychic than you are, I have assumed that the traditional cycles are valid, and have based the predictions on what has occurred in previous Pig years. You may review the history or jump directly to the predictions at the end of this post, after clicking the “continue reading” button. Continue reading