May 16, 2013

Year of the Snake Update

We are now more than a quarter of the way through the Year of the Water Snake 2013, so let us take a look at how some of the projections made back on the eve of Chinese New Year are playing out.

First, it was suggested that this year would see a major religion move boldly toward modernization.  Certainly that seems to be what is occurring in the Roman Catholic church with the unprecedented resignation of Pope Benedict XVI – a very conservative pontiff – and the election of Francis I, the first Latin American pope.  Francis’ agenda is not yet clear, but all that has happened constitutes a major change and reflects a recognition of the growing importance of non-European countries to the Church.

It was also said that the stock market would advance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising above 14,500.  That has already happened.  It was also said that some major event could pull the market down very rapidly.  So far, nothing like that has happened.  With any luck, it may not; though it remains a possibility.

Also concerning economic matters, it was suggested that precious metals prices would be volatile, with a reference made to the Panic of 1893.  In fact, gold and silver prices have both fallen.  It does not seem that the decreasing value of precious metals will lead to a depression as it did 120 years ago.

The earlier post suggested that the U. S. unemployment rate should dip below 7% this year.  The year began with the rate at 7.9%.  It has already dropped to 7.5%, and it should continue to improve.

It was further suggested that we should be wary of terrorist or military attacks.  The Boston Marathon bombing is a good example of the potential threats that still remain.  The civil war in Syria continues, with additional risks arising from Israeli air attacks.

Another threat mentioned was that of a volcano or earthquake in Latin America.  Nothing major has yet occurred, but Mexico’s Popocatepetl is showing signs of an imminent eruption, and certainly bears watching.

Finally, the projection was made that watered down gun control legislation would be enacted, but those laws would not end  the trend we have seen in mass shootings.  Well, there has in fact been watered down legislation enacted in several states, including here in Colorado – and just last week was a mass shooting at a Mother’s Day parade in New Orleans.  We need to hope and pray that these shooting sprees will come to an end.

Three quarters of this Snake Year remains, so another update will be posted in two nor three months.