February 9, 2013

YEAR OF THE SNAKE – 2013

On the Chinese calendar, the Year of the Water Snake begins with the New Moon on February 10, 2013.  Therefore, it is time to make my annual forecasts for the coming year.  I do not claim to have any extraordinary psychic abilities or great expertise in Chinese astrology.  Why should these forecasts matter then, you may ask.

I am reminded of the story of a famous scientist who hung a good luck horseshoe over the door of his office.  One of his colleagues remarked, “You don’t really believe that superstition, do you?”  The scientist replied, “Of course not; but it works whether you believe in it or not.”  So, if the Chinese are correct in the belief that there are various cycles, such as 12 years and 60 years, some reasonable predictions for the coming year may be made by looking at what occurred in previous Snake years.

How well does this approach work?  Well, looking back to last year, 2012’s forecast for the Year of the Dragon correctly predicted that the world would not end (a subject which will be revisited below); that my daughter, Suzanne’s, wedding would be celebrated in July (it was a lovely ceremony); that Barack Obama would be re-elected president; that we would see violent political discord (like the Arab Spring); that unemployment would fall and the stock market would rise and Kate Middleton’s pregnancy.  The predicted advances in solar energy, energy storage and stem cell therapy may have occurred, but they were not big news.  It was predicted that the Middle East would become more stable, but that does not seem to have occurred; and there were no major volcanoes, as it was suggested there might be (but that is a good possibility for this year).

There are so-called experts in astrology who will say that Snake years are not necessarily bad years.  Among the good things that can be expected are advances in the arts, an important year for fashion, a positive year for music and theater.  It is also a good year for love and romance, but that can lead to some scandal(s) involving famous people.

While all of that is probably true, it is important to be vigilant during these years and prepared for anything that might happen.  Like the proverbial “snake in the grass,” these years may seem rather calm until there is a sudden and vicious strike. To illustrate this, let us look at some of the “strikes” made in other Snake years during the 20^th and 21^st Centuries:

1917:  German U-Boats began sinking increasing number of American ships, drawing the U. S. into World War I.

1929:  The stock market crashed in October, triggering the Great Depression.

1941:  The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor brought the United States into World War II.

1953:  The secret test of a hydrogen bomb by the Soviet Union, followed by President Eisenhower’s directive that the U. S. nuclear arsenal must be maintained and expanded, marking the beginning of the Cold War.

1965:  The first American combat troops were deployed in Vietnam.  This was not as sudden as many of the other listed events, but it did mark a major change in policy and in the way the American people viewed the situation in Vietnam.

1989:  The major “snake bites” occurred in other countries, with the killing of protestors in Tiananmen Square in Beijing and the first suicide bombing by terrorists in Israel. In the United States, we had to deal with the Exxon Valdez oil spill and the invasion of Panama to oust Manuel Noriega.

2001:  Terrorists hijacked planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.  The resulting “War on Terror” and military excursions into Iraq and Afghanistan are still affecting us.

The Year of the Snake has also brought the end of hostilities, such as the treaty ending the Russo-Japanese War in 1905 and the official end of the Korean War in 1953.  I am hoping that this coming year will not bring sudden military strikes, but will be another year in which conflicts end, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Nevertheless, it is important to be prepared for some major tragedy occurring without warning.  Since we do not know which snake will strike, it is very difficult to try to guess what that tragedy might be.

In 2012, we saw the agitation of the “Arab Spring” followed by civil wars in several countries.  These events are likely to increase during the coming year.  Past Snake years have seen the beginning of the Russian Revolution in 1917, the resumption of the Chinese Civil War in 1941 and the events in China and Panama in 1989.  Unfortunately, it looks like there will be more bloodshed over the next several months.

Major advances in science and technology have occurred during Snake Years.  Examples include:

1905:  An automobile was first driven at a speed of over 100 mile per hour and Einstein’s famous equation e = mc².

1929:  First regularly scheduled TV broadcasts; first Technicolor movie; first manned rocket plane flight.

1941:  Plutonium isolated; first commercial TV licenses issued; first commercial FM radio station; first working, programmable, fully automatic computer.

1953:  Watson and Crick discovered structure of DNA; polio vaccine; first 3-D film.

1977:  First personal computers marketed; first flight of the Space Shuttle; first nodes of the ARPAnet were connected, which was the beginning of the internet; Apple Computer was formed.

2001:  Apple began marketing iPods and iTunes and the first draft of the human genome project was published.

Most of these developments were examples of applied science with commercial implications rather than pure research; and many involved Apple Computer.  We can probably expect more high tech gadgets in 2013, and probably some sort of major announcement from Apple.

With advances such as these, Snake years appear to be good for business and finance, but they are subject to sudden reversals stemming from the major events that seem to happen without much warning during these years.  The two most serious depressions in American history began in Snake years, following the Panic of 1893 and the events of October 1929.  There is an old saying on Wall Street that investors should “sell in May and go away.”  This could be a good year to follow that advice – although I think I may consider selling by April.  We will probably see the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise to 14,500 or above, but it could come crashing back down – probably temporarily – at any time.

Looking back to 2012, much was written about the end of one cycle in the ancient Mayan calendar and how that might signal the beginning of a new age of spirituality.  If that is so, we might expect to see at least the start of that trend during the coming year.  That may very well occur because past Snake years have been times of important advancements in the fields of religion and spirituality, including:

1917:  The Blessed Virgin Mary appeared to three children in Fatima, Portugal.  Parenthetically, I might add that Mary’s first appearance at Lourdes, France in 1858 occurred only two weeks after the end of a Snake year.

1929:  Vatican City became a sovereign, independent state.

1941:  While there were certain events that could be mentioned (such as Nazi Germany banning all Catholic publications), the main emphasis was on World War II and the belief that one side was morally and spiritually superior to the other.

1953:  Pope Pius XII, who had been the Pope through all of World War II, and had been subject to criticism for his failure to condemn the Nazis and the Holocaust, proclaimed that the following year would be a Marian Year to celebrate the 100^th anniversary of the dogma of the Immaculate Conception of the Virgin Mary.

1965:  The Second Vatican Council (Vatican II) was completed, bringing about major changes in the Catholic liturgy and changes in the way the Catholic Church saw its place in the modern world.

1977:  The first woman was formally ordained as an Episcopal priest.

1989:  The Episcopal Church appointed it first female bishop.

Most of the changes in this list show an established religion making changes to adjust to life in a changing world.  Others involve the Virgin Mary.  It seems, then, that we should see one or more of the major religions moving toward modernization in the coming months.  Also, it should not be surprising for there to be reports of appearances of Mary during this year.

In order to keep this post from becoming too long, let me just list a few other events that may occur during this Year of the Water Snake without discussing how they relate to past Snake years:

–          Flooding and serious hurricanes and tornadoes are, unfortunately, likely to occur.

–          Health problems for one or both of the former Presidents Bush, one of whom may not survive the year.

–          Similar health problems for, and the possible passing of, a member of the British Royal Family.

–          Increased autonomy for the various regions of China, with major economic advances for Mongolia.

–          Volatility in precious metal prices (you might want to familiarize yourself with the events of 1893, which was also a Year of the Water Snake, and the effect of the Sherman Silver Purchase Act – which particularly affected Colorado – and its part in the Panic of 1893).

–          Another large earthquake in Japan and a large earthquake, and perhaps a volcanic eruption in Central America or the Caribbean.

–          Major technology companies such as Google and Facebook could be subject to cyber-terrorism.

–          Solar flares will be given more attention than in the past.

–          Watered down gun control legislation will be enacted, but it will not end the trend of mass shootings.

–          The U.S. unemployment rate should dip below 7%.

–          The world will definitely not end this year.  I am so confident of this that I promise to never make any more predictions if I am wrong this time.

In summary, this should seem a fairly calm year for much of the time, at least on the surface, with attention focused on arts and media.  However, a tragedy or catastrophe could strike at any time with little or no warning.  It is a time to be cautious and to avoid speculation and gambling.

As mentioned last year, it is a tradition in some parts of China to cook a whole fish the day before the New Year and eat most, but not all, of the fish on New Year’s Eve.  Part of the fish must be saved to eat the next day, symbolizing that if we are not overly exuberant, the resources for a good life are with us even as times change.  This would be a good year to practice that tradition – and if you are a vegetarian, it doesn’t need to be a fish, just something good that can be feasted upon with part saved.  I hope that your luck and your opportunities, as well as your resources this year are exactly what you want and need.

Gung hay fat choy (Happy New Year)!