Year of the Dragon – 2012

YEAR OF THE DRAGON – 2012

January 23, 2012 is the first day of the Year of the Dragon on the Chinese calendar, so it is time for my annual look at the year to come based on historical trends and Chinese astrology.  I am not by any stretch of the imagination an expert on Chinese astrology, so this discussion is based on my research rather than my personal expertise.  The Year of the Water Dragon will continue until February 9, 2013.  It is thus apparent that the End of the World is not going to come in 2012.

The Chinese calendar is based on simple 12-year cycles, as well as larger cycles.  The last Year of the Dragon was 12 years ago in 2000.  At that time there was a great deal of concern about the New Millennium and Y2K, with some predicting the End of the World back then.  You may have noticed that it did not end.

In the West, our mythology of the Dragon presents a fierce and dangerous beast which must be slayed by knightly heroes.  The Chinese, though, see the Dragon as a benevolent creature – a symbol of power and superiority and a symbol of the ruler.  The time of the Dragon is excellent for new beginnings, so we may expect a baby boom in China where many couples are planning for their children to be born during this year.  Marriages that occur during a Dragon year are said to be “doubly blessed.”  This is a very good thing because my daughter, Suzanne, is going to be married in July.

Another important cycle for the Chinese is the 60-year cycle.  Much of Chinese philosophy is built around a belief in Five Elements  – Wood, Fire, Earth, Metal and Water.  Each year is said to have the attributes not only of the familiar animal, but also of one of these Elements, giving 60 different combinations (5×12=60).  2012 is the Year of the Water Dragon.

The Water Dragon is said to have a calm, visionary intelligence with an excellent balance between creativity and logic.  It should be expected that the coming year will be a time for thoughtful and diplomatic progress on social and environmental issues.  It may be expected that advances will be made on clean energy, energy conservation and the slowing of global warming.  Since Water is the active element during the year, we could also see advances in providing clean drinking water to poverty stricken areas and to positive steps to improve the health of the world’s oceans and waterways.

This year also marks the end of a cycle of general bad luck that began back in 1996 and many will feel their luck improving.  Dragon years are noted for bringing good luck to business, and especially to new ventures.  These years are often times of exuberance which can lead to overspending.  It is therefore important for individuals, businesses and governments to consciously set aside money for savings.  Dragons are traditionally associated with Spring, which could mean that the best opportunities will arise early in the year.  Watch for those and be ready to act upon them.  Remember, too that the Dragon’s exuberance can also lead the unwary to spectacular failures.

As mentioned above, the major trend in a Water Dragon year should be one of calm and diplomatic progress on social and environmental issues; but that is true only to a point.  The exuberance that can lead to overspending may also bring about violent discord and even revolution.  Don’t be surprised if the Occupy movement, for example, becomes more visible with rallies, demonstrations and perhaps even its own counter-political convention.

Clearly, a major focus in the coming year will be the presidential election here in the United States.  Even though the Year of the Dragon is auspicious for new beginnings, it is also a time favorable to rulers.  Despite the general discontent with the political system and with President Obama himself, history indicates that Mr. Obama has a very good chance of being re-elected.

Because of the relationship between the 4-year presidential election cycle and the 12-year Chinese calendar, a presidential election is held during each Year of the Dragon.  Since the United States was founded, there have been 18 elections held during a Year of the Dragon.  An incumbent president was running for re-election in seven of those; and the incumbent won all but one or two of those times.  (Andrew Jackson in 1832, a Water Dragon year; Theodore Roosevelt in 1904; Woodrow Wilson in 1916; Franklin Roosevelt in 1940; and Lyndon Johnson in 1964).  The incumbent president lost in 1976 when Gerald Ford was defeated by Jimmy Carter.

The other election in which an incumbent was running was 1892 – another Water Dragon year – and that was a very strange election.  In the previous election, the incumbent, Grover Cleveland, had received more of the popular vote than his opponent, Benjamin Harrison.  However, Harrison won all of the large Northern states and so was chosen president through the electoral college.  Cleveland and Harrison were the major candidates again in 1892, joined by two surprisingly strong third party candidates, James B. Weaver of the Populist Party and John Bidwell of the Prohibition Party.  Between them, those two minor candidates received over 10% of the votes cast.  The Populist Party actually carried four states, including Colorado.  Once again, Grover Cleveland received the most votes; and this time he also had the most electoral votes.  The winner, while not the incumbent, was the candidate who had actually received the most votes in the previous election.

Although incumbents have done well in American presidential elections, there have been major changes in governments during Dragon years.  For example, it 1952 – the last Water Dragon year – Elizabeth II became Queen of England and the Dragon year 1976 saw the death of Mao Tse-Tung in China.  Elizabeth’s reign has seen the transformation of the British Empire to the Commonwealth of Nations.  It is probable that the role of royalty in British society will see some major changes on her passing.  Nothing indicates that her passing is particularly likely this year, but there is a good chance that she could become a great-grandmother.  Chairman Mao’s death led to a complete change in the very fabric of Chinese society.

Another area of focus will be the economy.  During the past 60 years, the unemployment rate has dropped during each Year of the Dragon.  During the last Water Dragon year, 1952, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.0%, which is the second lowest on record (the following year, 1953, the rate fell to 2.9%).  The stock market has seen modest increases during most Dragon years.  The glaring exception was in 2000 when the “dot-com bubble” burst and the market lost nearly 50% of its value between September and the end of the year.  More typical were the previous two Dragon years, 1976 and 1988, when the market showed good recovery following crashes in the previous years.  The indication, then, is that the employment situation should improve this year and the stock market should rise.  The rise in the stock market may be a bit erratic with large swings both up and down.

The housing market has also improved during each Dragon year since 1952.  That would indicate that the worst of the housing crisis should now be over and markets should begin to improve – perhaps slowly – this year.

Indications are that prices for precious metals should increase this year, as well.

In no particular order, here are some other things that you may occur during the Year of the Dragon:

-Like his Western cousin, the regal Chinese Dragon is a fire-breather, so we could see more than our share of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes;

-The Middle East should be more stable than it has been in recent years;

-The worldwide economy remains shaky, but the Chinese economy, particularly that of Southern China, should rebound;

-Also look for economic improvement for Canada and Russia;

-Trouble spots include Tibet, Spain and Portugal;

-Expect major advances in solar energy and in batteries or other devices for energy storage;

-Great strides are possible in stem cell research and the use of stem cell therapy to treat various diseases.

 

 Overall, then, a year that is lucker than the past few have been.  This is a time of optimism and good progress, provided that enthusiasm is kept in check and actions are taken with an eye on the future.  Opportunities will certainly arise, but they may not be everything they seem at first glance. 

It is a tradition in some parts of China to cook a whole fish the day before the New Year and eat most, but not all, of the fish on New Year’s Eve.  Part of the fish must be saved to eat the next day, symbolizing that if we are not overly exuberant, the resources for a good life are with us even as times change.  This would be a good year to practice that tradition – and if you are a vegetarian, it doesn’t need to be a fish, just something good that can be feasted upon with part saved.  I hope that your luck and your opportunities, as well as your resources this year are exactly what you want and need.

Gung hay fat choy (Happy New Year)!

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